Showing posts with label Egypt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Egypt. Show all posts

Friday, September 20, 2013

Mob Versus Snob



Do you remember the end of history?  

I do.

You know, when the collapse of Soviet communism signaled the final triumph of American style democratic republican politics and free market economics…the victory that underlies the somewhat more scientific brand of American exceptionalism practiced by President Obama and excuses the often extralegal and violent insertion of the United States in world affairs?

But looking back at how the last twenty years have played out, I have a different theory of history: mob vs. snob.

By my reading, what keeps regimes in power is not the slavishness of their allegiance to democracy and free market tropes.

It’s whether they can command the united support of their elites, largely by ensuring that there are no plausible and ready alternatives for increasing and securing wealth and privilege regardless of whatever violence is done to the slogans of “free markets” and “democracy”.

That’s what happening in China, where the Chinese Communist Party has successfully fostered a “hang together or hang separately” vibe for the political and business elites; it’s what’s happened in Egypt as elites have rallied and united once again behind the army over the cadaver of the MB…and in Syria, where Bashar al Assad’s minority, undemocratic, and none too impressive regime has shown an astounding ability to retain the allegiance of its elites and exhibited a remarkable resilience. 

Thanks to serial miscalculations and misunderestimations of the survival skills of Bashar al Assad, the grim history of Western cheerleading for the Syrian revolution is usually ignored.  However, the defeat of the genuine Syrian revolution was the inability of the rural rebels to enlist the support of the urban elites or their offspring in 2011.  The first fatal moral and tactical failing of the revolution—and its cynical Western and Gulf backers--was to substitute armed insurrection for popular uprising in Damascus and Aleppo as punishment for the cities’ lack of revolutionary fervor, as well as an expression of the hope that a push for regime collapse would…well, usher in something better than the obscene carnival of murder, extremism, misery, and banditry that resulted.  

Perhaps Syrian elites are now cleaving even more closely and desperately to the Assad regime than they were back in 2011.

Elite solidarity is not what happened in the Soviet Union, thanks to Gorbachev’s abandonment of the Communist monopoly and the subsequent rush for the national exits by appalled apparatchiks, not into the dustbin of history, but into control of government organs and enterprises throughout the ex-Soviet empire.  

And elite solidarity is not the best one-word description of what’s happening in the United States.

I will illustrate my thesis by a romp through early American history.

Tuesday, September 03, 2013

We Need to Talk About Bandar




In the back and forth about Syria, there is surprisingly little discussion about Saudi Arabia’s Prince Bandar.

Even though Bandar apparently took over the Saudi covert account last year and has driven the Kingdom’s hard line against the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria.

It’s also clear that Saudi Arabia has slipped the leash and is no longer a cooperative US ally.  The general narrative is that the Saudis got disgusted and disillusioned by the Obama administration’s dithering in Egypt.  

Maybe it wasn’t just dithering.  Maybe the Obama administration was consistently supportive of civilian rule and insufficiently sedulous in the attention it paid to the Egyptian army and its role in assuring the institutional continuity (ahem) and stability of Egyptian political life.

It is also possible that the Saudis finally decided that it would not try to paper over the disagreements between the US and the KSA over persistent US support for the Morsi regime, especially since the Saudi government was determined to overwhelm US attempts to control the Egyptian military through withholding the US aid package of $1.2 billion by “flooding the zone” with a promise of $12 billion from Riyadh.

So a clean break was marked by a coup, a defiant massacre of America’s preferred political partners in Egypt, and orchestration of a vociferous and extremely public anti-US PR campaign that has made the Obama administration’s name mud in pro-coup activist circles.

My thoughts returned to Prince Bandar on the occasion of a piece on Kevin Drum’s blog about President Obama’s miserable Syrian options.

In a previous post I speculated that the Syrian gas attack might have been a false flag attack designed to force the Obama administration to intervene in Syria.

At the time I wasn’t aware of the reporting on Prince Bandar’s extensive involvement in Saudi Arabia’s Syria project, so I coyly referred to the hypothetical visitor as “Prince B---“.  But based on Mour Malas’ August 25 piece in the Wall Street Journal—including the revelation that Saudi Arabia had already been trying to push the Obama administration over the chemical weapons red line several months ago—we can certainly fill in the blanks and speculate about Prince Bandar’s possible role in a false flag attack:

That winter, the Saudis also started trying to convince Western governments that Mr. Assad had crossed what President Barack Obama a year ago called a "red line": the use of chemical weapons. Arab diplomats say Saudi agents flew an injured Syrian to Britain, where tests showed sarin gas exposure. Prince Bandar's spy service, which concluded in February that Mr. Assad was using chemical weapons, relayed evidence to the U.S., which reached a similar conclusion four months later. The Assad regime denies using such weapons. 

According to Malas, Saudi Arabia has also been repeatedly telling the Obama administration its stature in the Middle East is toast unless it acts firmly on Syria.

Connoisseurs of US Congressional diplomacy will also be pleased to know that Senator John McCain, who has been all over the airwaves pushing for a US response of regime-change dimensions and not a symbolic slap on the wrist, is hand-in-glove with Prince Bandar.

Anyway, as cited by Kevin Drum, Malas’ most recent piece fills in (boldface by Drum) some of the blanks, making the case that President Obama’s rather more genuine dithering on Syria resulted from the unwillingness to knock down the Assad regime until the U.S. and Syrian opposition moderates had gotten their act together and could field a plausible team to handle New Syria transition and governance.

The delay, in part, reflects a broader U.S. approach rarely discussed publicly but that underpins its decision-making, according to former and current U.S. officials: The Obama administration doesn't want to tip the balance in favor of the opposition for fear the outcome may be even worse for U.S. interests than the current stalemate.

....The administration's view can also be seen in White House planning for limited airstrikes—now awaiting congressional review—to punish Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for his alleged use of chemical weapons. Pentagon planners were instructed not to offer strike options that could help drive Mr. Assad from power: "The big concern is the wrong groups in the opposition would be able to take advantage of it," a senior military officer said. The CIA declined to comment.

....Many rebel commanders say the aim of U.S. policy in Syria appears to be a prolonged stalemate that would buy the U.S. and its allies more time to empower moderates and choose whom to support....Israeli officials have told their American counterparts they would be happy to see its enemies Iran, the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah and al Qaeda militants fight until they are weakened, 

“Slow and steady” is manifestly not the strategy that Prince Bandar prefers in Syria.  Given the dysfunction of the Syrian overseas opposition—as opposed to the murderous efficiency of the distinctly non-democratic jihadis—one can’t really blame him.

The Geneva peace talks, by the way—which embodied the US hopes of some kind of negotiated transition involving the Syrian opposition democratic goodniks—are not going ahead, thanks to the gas attack.  

As the Russian media reported:


Earlier on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the timing of the chemical attack “suited” the opposition, “who obviously do not want to negotiate peacefully”, instead they want to “sabotage” the talks.

Why go to a conference if you believe that the regime’s infrastructure will all be destroyed anyway by allies, and then you can just march into Damascus unopposed, and take control?” said the official in Moscow.


Good question.

Anyway, Prince Bandar has been very active on the Syrian brief.  He arranged the high profile shipment of arms to the rebels out of Croatia and also—according to disputed but plausible reports—unsuccessfully cajoled/threatened Vladimir Putin to drop Assad by promising that Saudi Arabia could in return deliver a) support for Russia’s gas export ambitions and b) hold in check the Chechen rebels who otherwise might do awful, awful things to Putin’s Olympics in Sochi.

Inevitably, there are also mumblings linking Saudi Arabia to the supply of sarin gas to the rebels.

Now, thanks to President Obama’s injudicious red line/chem munitions remark, he’s being forced to make a choice, to “get off the fence”.

Well, maybe the choice has been made for him.  Maybe he got pushed off the fence.  By Prince Bandar.

I think we are creeping closer to confirmation of the hypothesis I’ve been advancing http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2012/11/world-braces-for-syrian-trainwreck.html http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2013/01/saudi-arabia-vs-qatar-on-syria.html http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2013/01/saudi-arabia-vs-qatar-redux.html since November of last year: that Saudi Arabia had not only decided to push the Qatar-backed Muslim Brotherhood out of the leadership of the Syrian opposition (something which has subsequently been confirmed and reconfirmed), but that the Saudi strategy for Syria involved regime collapse first, rejecting the strategy of cutting a deal with  Assad to get him to the bargaining table after prolonged bleeding for some kind of negotiated capitulation and a democratic transition.

Anyway, in the proxy war for Syria it looks like we now have a debate between the rather conflicted but intensely risk-averse and regime-transition fixated Obama administration and Saudi Arabia + John McCain’s regime collapse advocacy.  

And everybody’s waiting for Israel—which is uncomfortable with a jihadi-led insurrection but probably feels that clout and initiative are slipping out of President Obama’s fingers—to get off its fence and either push for a strike, a big strike, or nothing at all.

Wonder how that will work out.

In any case, if we’re talking about Syria, we need to talk about Prince Bandar.




Friday, August 23, 2013

The Summer of Snowden and Egypt, and What It Means for China

[This post originally appeared at Asia Times Online on August 22, 2013 as "Denial Is Not Just a River in Egypt".  I've expanded and clarified the original piece considerably, especially in material pertaining to Golden Shield and the Great Firewall, with the additions shown in red.  This piece may be reposted if ATOl is credited and a link provided.]

The Summer of Snowden and Egypt has been an awkward one for the liberal democratic ideal and the rhetoric of ''universal values'' - and Beijing's inability to honor them - that have wrong-footed the People's Republic of China so thoroughly in recent years in the international arena.

Most recently, Egypt slid over to join Libya on the bloody bollocks side of the political ledger, as the liberal panacea for the ills of authoritarianism - millions of people in the streets voicing democratic slogans - was unapologetically and enthusiastically deployed to support a military coup against a democratically elected government and then initiate a bloody pogrom against Egypt's erstwhile rulers, the Muslim Brotherhood.

There have been rather eye-popping attempts to reconcile the Egyptian jacquerie of 2013 with the optimistic vision that prevailed during the Arab Spring - and differentiate the events in Egypt from the ''bad'' massacre in Beijing in 1989. A writer at a national US magazine inadvertently illustrated the true crime of Tiananmen - its violation of the law of neoliberal democratic optics:
The Tiananmen Square massacre, on the other hand, defied its historical context; that same year, Communist regimes across Eastern Europe fell peacefully, and within two years the Soviet Union would also collapse. Though the Tiananmen Square massacre happened before the fall of the Berlin Wall, it became, in retrospect, an outlier in the historical context of its era. And for this reason, the Chinese government's killing of its protesters seemed especially outrageous.
Tiananmen wasn't just a massacre; it was a crime against the zeitgeist!

Now that Egypt 2013 has apparently surpassed PRC 1989 on the massacre-o-meter, the Butchers of Beijing probably find it ironic that, while the PRC has been subjected to an increasingly anachronistic arms embargo by the West ever since Tiananmen, the Obama administration currently finds itself incapable of formally cutting off military aid to Egypt's new rulers. [1]

More to the point, the Egyptian precedent will provide plenty of ammunition to Chinese theorists who believe that the PRC formula of political stability and cautious reform by fiat pays more dividends than handing the future of the country over to let-'er-rip democracy.

The case is already being made in the pages of China's state media, as Global Times informs us:
A Chinese associate professor on Tuesday cautioned that developing countries should be vigilant against "democracy trap" in the wake of Egypt's deadly clashes.

The remarks by Ding Long, associate professor at the University of International Business and Economics, came in his article carried by the People's Daily on Tuesday. ...

Democratization of developing countries needs a preparatory phase, during which the development of the economy should be prioritized to strengthen social organizations and civil society, Ding noted.  
"Serious maladjustment of democracy may occur if developing countries indiscriminately imitate the Western democratic model," Ding warned. [2].
Self-serving advice by an authoritarian regime anxious to stay in power? Certainly.

Good advice for countries looking at the real dangers of democratic transition? Maybe.

There has been a lot of grim, informed attention paid by the China-watching media to President Xi Jinping's willingness to dash the hopes of liberal reformers with his relatively open determination to enforce the CCP's favored norms of political stability and organizational obedience, marked by a round-up of open society activists, lawyers, and even, from the other side of the fence, a Maoist activist eager to make the case for ex-Chongqing mayor Bo Xilai as he headed for trial. [3]

Xi has been remarkably active on the propaganda and ideology front. Other than the ''China Dream'', one of the first fruits of the 18th Party Congress was the ''mass line'' - in Xinhua's words, ''a guideline under which CPC officials and members are required to prioritize the interests of the people and persist in exercising power for them'' since ''the CPC is facing a more complicated situation in maintaining ties with the public, as rapid economic and social development has resulted in conflicts between different social groups'' and "therefore, the CPC needs to build systems and mechanisms to encourage its members to interact with the public and guarantee its mass line principle," (according to Gao Xinmin of the CCP Central Party School). [4]

At the same time, the CCP propaganda chiefs put out a sternly worded directive about the ''7 things not to discuss'', basically a laundry list of liberal concerns like ''Western constitutionalism'', ''universal values'', ''civil society'' (''opposition to opening and reform'' was also bullet-pointed, presumably to put devotees of Bo Xilai on notice). Xi removed any doubt that he stood behind the principle of party supremacy with an extensively reported speech to an ideological work conference that urged party members to be more pro-active in propaganda work, essentially promoting a vision of the CCP as the glue that will bind a fracturing Chinese society and worldview into a single instrument of national economic and social development. [5]

Good luck with that, one might say, given the imbalances and frictions within the Chinese economy and society and the Party's perhaps terminal unpopularity, thanks to its addiction to corruption, non-transparency, and impunity.

However, the Xi administration that took up the reins of power earlier this year is preparing to confront some significant challenges, which can perhaps best be met with a party apparatus rededicated to self-preservation through unity, and not afflicted and divided by liberal Chinese critics fixated on the CCP's myriad democratic shortcomings.

Xi and Prime Minister Li Keqiang recognize some serious structural threats to Chinese development as yields from the old export/infrastructure investment binge model dry up. The new regime has haltingly signaled its desire to transition to a consumer-driven model of economic growth, reform the hukou (household registration) system, curb the economic and loan-hogging dominance of the PRC's overbuilt state-owned enterprises and, perhaps, even deal with the dysfunctional model of local government funding through runaway land seizure and real estate development that is driving Chinese fiscal governance into a ditch - as soon as Bo Xilai has been safely consigned to the dustbin of history.

However, all these reforms - if Xi and Li have the nerve to carry them out - bring with them the prospect of social unrest. Access to credit will become more difficult, enterprises will topple, people will get thrown out of work, people coming out of school will have trouble finding jobs, officials and other millionaires will scheme to protect their dwindling bank balances or, try to stay out of jail or out of a grave as the next corruption investigation blows through town to distract and placate the unhappy masses during the wrenching transition ... and the central government and party regime will want to make sure that an anti-regime nexus of discontent, dissent, factionalism, and opportunism does not emerge to oppose the central government and its policies.

If social and institutional forces amplify the voices of dissent within Chinese society and even link street activists to disgruntled bosses and millionaires and generals - which is what happened in Egypt and, for that matter China in 1989 - and produce the ultimate catastrophe for CCP governance: an elite split bringing forth a new Gorbachev, Zhao Ziyang - or Bo Xilai.

To an authoritarian regime, increased control is an end in itself. However, the central government's hostility to political reform - and its eagerness to pour scorn on the ostentatious reverence paid by China's liberals to the PRC's (party written, People's Congress-rubber stamped, and never-voted-on) national constitution as a piece of political theater - may also signal that Xi Jinping is trying to seize the political and security high ground in order to anticipate and blunt resistance to his policies.

Since the PRC's ability to manage this transition is of considerable importance to both China and the world, and given the negative example of events in Egypt, perhaps a rethinking of the relationship between political and social reform will make its way onto the world's agenda if Xi and Li make a serious effort to pursue their reform quest.

If American liberal opinion still has limited heartburn digesting 1,000 corpses in Cairo as a speedbump on the road to democracy, it will probably have even less difficulty reconciling the Snowden revelations with its persistent critique of authoritarian Chinese security practices.

Nevertheless, the surveillance story has embarrassed several Western governments by dropping more shoes than a footloose caterpillar as the Guardian and Washington Post bookend the Obama administration's efforts at damage control with carefully escalated revelations.

The United States appears to have been reasonably, if not overwhelmingly, sedulous in avoiding the targeted collection of communications between ''US persons'' within the US. That's supposed to be the job of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the FBI is expected to clear a higher legal and evidentiary bar than the National Security Agency before it avails itself of the universal wiretapping backdoors mandated on US telecoms equipment by the CALEA (Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act) statute.

At the same time, it has become abundantly clear that the National Security Agency (NSA), whose statutory playground is non-US communications, can also listen to anybody anytime in the United States if the protections embodied in US laws and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act courts fail, thanks to accident, design, or the exercise of individual initiative, as they have apparently done in several cases.

Add to that the NSA's unquestioned ability to view traffic transiting the US or residing on the servers of US Internet service providers, e-mail providers, Facebook, Google, and Yahoo! and the like.

Add to that the extensive access to traffic and information that doesn't touch the United States, thanks to the cooperation and information sharing provided by the ''Five Eyes'' - the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, in addition to the US.

And then there is apparently an extensive cross-border hacking operation to access digital resources from uncooperative jurisdictions like China and Russia.

A watershed was perhaps reached with the detention of David Miranda, the partner of Glenn Greenwald (the Guardian reporter who broke the Snowden story), in the transit area of London's Heathrow Airport. It is difficult to conceive of a legally and strategically more ill-conceived sally than using an apparently bogus reading of British terrorism laws to detain Miranda and seize his electronics.

And it is difficult to conceive of an environment in which such a blunder could be committed, inviting unwelcome speculation that the surveillance and security apparatus is, despite government assurances, really out of control, drunk with its own sense of power and impunity, and given to the pursuit of arbitrary and illegal vendettas against individuals to whom it has taken a dislike.

Add it all up, and the Snowden revelations have, as a second-order result, painted privacy as a precarious privilege limited to US persons by a constitutionally restrained and perhaps less than enthusiastic US government, not a universal value affirmed to the world by the United States in its role as champion of freedom and free expression.

This has provoked some mental calisthenics by Chinese activists in their efforts to explain the qualitative difference between US and PRC surveillance. One dissident addressed a police search and confiscation of his ''probe hound'' - a device for detecting wireless eavesdropping - from his luggage while traveling in China:
[...]These things happened as the Edward Snowden revelations were attracting the world's attention. The Chinese government seemed gratified, even pleased. Look! The United States is no better than China, so let's all just stop the mutual carping.

But let's not jump to conclusions. How comparable are the cases? Is it conceivable that the United States would tell a citizen that he has no right to a probe hound? In China, the government can enter any space of any citizen anytime it wants. It is the ''counterespionage'' of citizens that is prohibited. [6]
In the wake of Bradley Manning's 35-year sentence for Wikleaking, it remains to be seen if the US State Department rolls out ''freedom to engage in counterespionage'' as a universal human right.

The fallout from two upcoming civil suits against US-based computer network equipment designer and supplier Cisco Systems will provide some perspective on how effectively the ''universal values'' critique of China's surveillance state survives the Snowden revelations.

The two suits, one filed in Maryland on behalf of democracy activist Du Daobin and other Chinese dissidents, the second in San Francisco by the Human Rights Law Foundation, an advocacy group friendly to the Falun Gong (FLG), a China-based spiritual practice group, on behalf of abused FLG practitioners, seek damages from Cisco's corporate head office for its alleged culpability in customizing machines supplied to the PRC's Golden Shield Project to assist China's Public Security Bureau in pursuing dissidents.

The two suits have been bubbling along for several months, but recently received a jolt of publicity as the Electronic Freedom Foundation filed an amicus brief on behalf of the plaintiffs in the Du Daobin case. [7]

The centerpiece of the Du Daobin case, at least in the public sphere, is the infamous Slide 57 from a Cisco internal briefing from 2002, which was rather belatedly leaked in 2010 and serves as Exhibit A to the complaint. In full, the slide reads:
The Golden Shield Project: Public Network Information Security Monitor System
Stop the network related crimes
Guarantee the security and services of the public network
Combat ''Falun Gong'' evil religion and other hostiles
[Note: Statement of Government goals from speech government official Li Runsen]
The regime's preoccupation with Falun Gong as a target of Golden Shield is confirmed by a 2007 public statement in the Chinese media (which the plaintiff's lawyers in the San Francisco case apparently seized upon for a rather tortured interpretation of ''struggle'' to link the PSB and the Golden Shield system and Cisco USA to brainwashing and other efforts to completely suppress the Falun Gong) that the Golden Shield Public Network Information Security Monitor System is ''an extremely important project to attack Internet crime and ensure the safety and service of the public network; in the struggle with the heterodox Falun Gong religious teaching and other hostile elements, it has already had an important effect. [8]

In slide 58, the presenter describes Cisco's opportunities relating to the overall Golden Shield project:
High starting point planning
High standard construction
Technical training
Security, operational maintenance
This does not appear to be terribly strong beer.

For perspective, the lengthy Cisco Powerpoint presentation described the state of play and potential Cisco opportunities throughout the Chinese public security apparatus. The Golden Shield was one significant area of PSB investment - a massive digitization and information systems integration program initiated in 1997 to bring the PRC's information systems and enforcement into the 21st century, and the ''Public Network Information Security Monitor System'' - responsible for the FLG and other hostiles - was one of six tasks within Golden Shield and is covered by one slide out of the 97 in the presentation.

Slide 57 could be spun as development of defensive measures against the proudly net-savvy and regime-unfriendly Falun Gong organization, not an aggressive campaign against innocent practitioners.

After all, the Internet was at the core of the FLG virtual community and its outreach, education, and growth strategy. E-mail had served as the instrument for mobilizing a vigil in front of Zhongnanhai, the Communist Party's headquarters in Beijing, in 1999 that excited the anxiety of the CCP and the determination of then Party leader Jiang Zemin to eradicate the group. In 2002, the year the Cisco slide was prepared, Falun Gong practitioners hijacked the transponder on an Asian communications satellite and beamed an FLG banner throughout China for 15 minutes.

Even today, the FLG prides itself on its Internet skills and, in 2010, it received a US$1.5 million grant from the US State Department for development of its Internet censorship evasion technologies, Freesurf and Ultranet. In its own submission, the plaintiffs declare that:
Prior to the implementation of the Golden Shield, it was impossible for the CCP or security authorities to effectively detect, identify, or track widespread Falun Gong activities online. [9]
Interestingly, the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) also did not file an amicus brief on behalf of the case being pursued against Cisco in San Francisco (perhaps because the lawyers' determination to seek class action status for tortured FLG practitioners made that filing look more problematic), even though the Du Daobin case rests its case on the rather easily challenged assertion that Golden Shield's essential identity is as an instrument of repression of political dissent, apparently in order to spare the legal team the heavy lifting of linking Cisco to concrete instances of customization for the purpose of human rights violations. [10]

The EFF, although a highly effective and determined protector of digital rights, made the rather annoying flub of misspelling ''Falun Gong hostiles'' as ''Falun Gong hostilities'' throughout the brief. It also conflated Golden Shield - the Public Security Bureau's massive national internal surveillance, information aggregation, and data mining network targeting domestic crime and dissent, basically what would happen in the United States if the FBI had the capabilities of the NSA without any constitutional restraints - with ''The Great Firewall of China'' - the considerably smaller (but to Western journalists and West-friendly dissidents and content-hungry netizens absolutely infuriating) software regime imbedded in international gateway and regional routers to detect and block undesirable foreign content.


The Great Firewall is apparently not run as an exclusively Public Security Bureau operation.  As far as I can tell, it gets its marching orders from the State Internet Information Office under the State Council.  A PSB official is a vice director of the SIIO and undoubtedly has a decisive voice there, but I draw the implication that, in bureaucrat-speak, there are multiple party/media/propaganda equities involved in deciding what gets blocked, beyond the priorities of the PSB and its particular mission of tracking and trampling on crooks and dissidents whose on-line activities rise far enough above the level of embarrassment and irritation to be criminalized.

The publicly identified architect of the Great Firewall of China, Fang Binxing, was a telecoms functionary who until recently served as head of the Beijing Telecommunications University. Fang openly defended the government's right to restrict the flow of information and has maintained a rather hapless public persona, getting pelted with shoes and eggs during his rare public appearances and shutting down his Weibo account after it became a target of non-stop invective.

On the occasion of Fang's announcement of his retirement from his post at BTU in July of this year, rumored to be because of cancer, Radio Free Asia--whose website, one can safely say, certainly served as the object of Fang's unwelcome attentions--gave him a valedictory that included the comment from a Chinese blogger that "For someone to do as he did was simply monstrous...He's sick and hasn't died yet and he's already cursed at, he's got cancer and everybody celebrates his impending death. As a general matter, cursing a dead person is not virtuous, but in this case intellectuals and netizens are unanimous; no one will condemn such behavior."

I might point out that Li Runsen, the architect of Golden Shield--whose statement of the objectives of the Golden Shield Public Information Security Monitor System provided the content for Slide 57--  was a heavyweight in the Public Security Bureau and has now moved onto a profitable second career in the security/industrial complex as a director of the Shenzhen-based China Security and Surveillance Corporation.  As yet, apparently nobody has displayed the temerity to abuse Li on-line for equipping the authoritarian Chinese state with digital teeth and claws, let alone organize displays of egg and shoe-throwing at his rare public appearances. 

 Long story short, although persecuting political and religious dissidents is a significant mission both for Golden Shield and for its public network monitoring operation (which, according to slide 4 of the Cisco presentation, is handled by PSB Bureau 11 and implemented at the various local levels--here's the site for Yantai), it's not the only job and the PRC apparently invested 3.7 billion yuan (US$604 million) in Golden Shield to link together almost 2 million computers to do a lot of cop stuff as well. [11]


Therefore, simply linking Cisco to Golden Shield without demonstrating customization of software explicitly designed to pursue dissidents--which seems to be the approach in the Du Daobin case--may not be an evidentiary slam dunk.


The Falun Gong complaint, on the other hand, seems to be richer in smoking gun allegation of Cisco USA's culpability in modifying its equipment specifically and overtly for the purpose of hunting down Falun Gong practitioners:
71. Defendants marketed to Public Security officers that its security software was the ''only product capable of recognizing over 90% of Falun Gong pictorial information.''

72. To achieve such a high success rate, Defendants identified and analyzed Internet activity that is unique to Falun Gong practitioners and used this activity to create unique digital Falun Gong''signatures.'' These Falun Gong-specific signatures were incorporated by Defendants into security software upgrades at regular intervals to ensure Falun Gong activity was identified, blocked and tracked.
Cisco is expected to argue that, thanks to a corporation-friendly ruling by the Supreme Court concerning the ''Alien Torts Statue'' (which permits aliens to file civil suits for damages in US courts and serves as the legal basis for both actions), US corporations (as opposed to individuals) are not liable for overseas malfeasance unless a relevant ''US nexus'' (which was not clearly defined in the ruling) can be shown.

However, this is a civil, not a criminal case and, as O J Simpson can attest, the evidentiary bar for initiating and winning a civil case is considerably lower than for a criminal case. What exactly is a ''human rights violation'' and what is ''routine security practice'' is in the eyes of the beholder - the court - and not subject to the criminal standard of ''proof beyond a reasonable doubt''.

The EFF brief is littered with ''suggests'' and ''plausibles'' and, in the end, its news release declares that there is enough ambiguity to justify, not preclude, the court accepting the case and embarking on discovery:
Regardless of whether Cisco "merely" sold surveillance and censorship equipment to China or whether they customized this equipment to pinpoint dissidents, it's clear that the place to decide this issue is a court of law. The plaintiffs have a right to present their evidence and have a court rule on the legitimacy of their claims. [12]
If one or more of the cases goes to trial, perhaps enough damaging information will be shaken out of Cisco during the disclosure process to keep the legal ball rolling and even support other cases against US manufacturers or Chinese entities and individuals.

However, the PRC leadership, as it looks at the travails of Egypt and the single-minded US commitment to the surveillance regime, will probably decide it is better to avoid the Egyptian example of rapid democratic reform, embrace the US model of unrepentant expansion of its information collection and processing abilities, and see little incentive to alter its authoritarian behavior.


Notes:

1. See CNN report, August 20, 2013.
2. See Chinese professor warns of "democracy trap", Xinhua, August 20, 2013.
3. See Journalists, Lawyers Targeted as Xi Tightens ControlChina Digital Times, August 22, 2013.
4. CPC's "mass line" campaign not a short-term movement, News of The Communist Party of China, July 15, 2013.
5. See here.
6. When it Comes to Domestic Spying, US is no China, August 22, 2013.
7. See US District Court for the District of Maryland case filing hereThe EFF amicus brief is here.
8. See here.
9. See here.
10. See Daobin v. Cisco Cisco's Legal Legerdemain Continues, Ward & Ward PLLC.
11. See Xinhuanet.
12. Cisco and Abuses of Human Rights in China: Part 1, by Rainey Reitman, Electronic Frontier Foundation, August 22, 2011.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Few Silver Linings in Egypt for the United States...or China



Recent events in Egypt provide significant food for thought for China policy idealists and realists.

The liberal West’s chosen panacea for China—millions of young people taking to the streets and voicing democratic slogans—produced an embarrassing military coup and an appalling massacre in Egypt.

If news reports can be trusted, there is a distinct lack of high-minded reflection and remorse, let alone anguished liberal handwringing, among the opponents of the Morsi/MB regime in the wake of the massacres that claimed over 600 lives:

"They deserved it. They wanted to destroy the country, so that's why the military had to step in," Salah Amin, a 17-year-old student from Sharqiya, said on Friday as fresh violence erupted in Cairo. "I'm with the army and the police against the Muslim Brotherhood, who want to ruin Egypt and run it the way they want."

"We agree with what happened at Rabaa and at Nahda," said Mohamed Khamis, a spokesman for the Tamarod (Rebellion) campaign, which mobilised public opinion against the democratically-elected but deeply unpopular Morsi. "We don't like what the Brotherhood did."

The ferocious illiberal pogrom against the MB condoned by Egypt’s liberals has provoked extreme intellectual contortions attempting to reconcile the ideal of Arab Spring democratic nobility with the 2013 reality of massacre, suppression, and slander.

If, on the other hand, the perspective is shifted away from “Egypt broke my heart” liberal solipsism, the Egyptian coup has some important and unfavorable implications for America’s standing in the Middle East.

The most important lesson of the Egyptian coup, for Americans at least, is its demonstration of the increasing marginalization of the US political and diplomatic presence in the Middle East as Saudi Arabia engineers its own aggressive response to the challenge of the Arab Spring.  (And Asianists should take note that Japan is poising itself to take on a similar role in its neck of the woods.  But that’s another story.)

Both Morsi and the United States were apparently oblivious to the Egyptian government’s deteriorating life expectancy, since they were operating on the theory that the military's deeply-felt detestation of the Muslim Brotherhood would be held in check thanks to the value it attached to its alliance with the United States and the billion-plus dollars of aid that came with it.

For the United States, the Muslim Brotherhood was regarded as “the Islamists we can do business with”, a political movement with a Leninist/modernist perspective on government and nation-building that was infinitely preferable to tussling with the obscurantist Wahabbi/Salafi/jihadi brand of Islam associated with Saudi Arabia that spawned al Qaeda and fueled anti-US struggles in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

The United States not only favored the MB in Egypt; it favored the MB faction that dominated the overseas Syrian opposition in its early days, and supported MB-heavy governments in Tunisia and Libya.  For a while, it looked like the MB—with enthusiastic backing from Qatar and its al Jazeera media operation—had run the table, and would serve as an acceptable intermediary for the United States in its dealing with the Arab world, and with the inchoate democratic movements that were destabilizing governments across the region.

Qatar supported Morsi and the MB in Egypt in a big way, as Mike Giglio reported for the Daily Beast in April:

Qatar had already promised Egypt financial aid totaling $5 billion, on top of plans to invest another $18 billion in the country over the next five years. Then, on Wednesday, it sent yet another lifeline, pledging to boost the struggling economy by buying up $3 billion in government bonds. (It also offered to send gas to stave off expected summer blackouts, which will give Morsi some much-needed political relief.)

There was one problem, however.

Saudi Arabia, pretty much the poster child for sclerotic, obscurantist autocracy, hates the Arab Spring.  It also hates the Muslim Brotherhood, whose religious and social agenda is predicated upon the achievement of political power, and had demonstrated a considerable ability to piggyback its political fortunes on the Arab Spring uprisings.

The Saudi government also decided, for whatever reason (but probably related at least in part to the Obama administration’s stated desire to pivot away from the Middle East and into Asia), to take matters into its own hands and do something about it.

So, in addition to the highly publicized agenda for anti-Shi’ite rollback which included targeting Iran and Syria, the brutal suppression of Shi’ites in Bahrain, and, possibly, sub rosa support for the increasingly bloody Sunni insurrection  against the Maliki government in Iraq, Saudi Arabia took aim at its leading competitor for influence in the Sunni world—Qatar—and Qatar’s chosen solution for riding out the storms of the Arab Spring—the Muslim Brotherhood.

I will confess to the sin of pride in that I was probably one of the first English-language observers to point out the Qatar-Saudi split, on the subject of Syria, when Saudi Arabia boycotted a meeting that was intended to reboot the MB-led and US-backed overseas opposition. 

Now, with plausible if MB-friendly reports of active Saudi participation in coup planning and orchestration of the military’s abandonment of Morsi, the Saudi-Qatar split is pretty much out in the open.

In order to keep the doors open in Cairo, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE have pledged $12 billion to support the new military-backed government.  Qatar—which has handsomely promised to deliver a scheduled shipment of free gas to the new regime—faces an uphill battle to exert influence in Egypt now that the MB has been deposed and suppressed and may shortly face an outright ban.

As for the United States, Americans are beginning to realize, $1.2 billion in U.S. military aid doesn’t buy a lot of influence in Egypt when put up against the kinds of numbers the the Middle Eastern states are throwing around to bankroll the regime’s fiscal and economic survival.  Now, it looks like the United States might need Egypt more than Egypt needs the U.S., which is not the bargaining situation one likes to be in.  

When, on top of that, one adds the fact that the U.S. threw another flip-flop into the gears by ditching the whole democracy-love thing and withdrawing its support for Morsi once the determination of the military to mount a coup was apparent, the U.S. appears markedly deficient both in moral cred and political clout in Egypt.

More fundamentally, U.S. obliviousness to the upcoming coup implies that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, in a de facto alliance with Israel, have decided to lead on security policy in the Middle East, and it’s pretty much up to the U.S. to follow or get out of the way.

The other power dismayed by the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is Recip Erdogan’s Turkey.

Prime Minister Erdogan’s vision for the Middle East involves leadership by cautious elected Islamists wearing suits, and he was undoubtedly dismayed that the elected, suit-wearing MB regime in Egypt could be overthrown by the military (Erdogan’s bete noire in Turkey), and to thunderous popular acclaim.

Erdogan provided some inadvertent amusement by declaring that he saw the black hand of Bernard Henri-Levy—the showboating French intellectual who served as cheerleader for French intervention in Libya, an operation that Erdogan enthusiastically endorsed—in the Egyptian fracas.

Haaretz unpacked Erdogan’s remarks:

“Who is behind [the coup]? There is Israel,” ErdoÄŸan told a meeting of party leaders. “We have document in our hands,” he said, citing an open session between a Jewish intellectual from France and an Israeli justice minister before the first free elections in Egypt held in March 2011.

As he was delivering multilayered messages concerning both foreign and domestic policy at the meeting, ErdoÄŸan furthermore maintained that those who have been accusing the government of autocratic governance in Turkey should actually look at Egypt, where the coup rulers have been acting dictatorially. “If you want to see a dictator, go ahead, go to Egypt,” he said.

In an apparent reference to moves to topple his government at the time, ErdoÄŸan recalled that Turkey had experienced coup attempts and undemocratic practices. “Here, at this moment, there are those who want to float again the West’s understanding which says ‘Democracy is not the ballot box,’ or ‘Democracy is not only the ballot box.’ But we say that democracy’s path passes through the ballot box and the ballot box itself is the people’s will. At the moment, this is what is being implemented in Egypt.”

“What do they say in Egypt? They say that ‘Democracy is not the ballot box.’”

A source later told the Associated Press that the evidence on Israel that ErdoÄŸan was referring to was a video “available on the Internet” of a press conference by Israeli Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and French philosopher and author Bernard-Henri Levy.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that as far as he knew, that was the only evidence of the claim. A video of the two, dating back to 2011, shows Levy saying: “If the Muslim Brotherhood arrives in Egypt, I will not say democracy wants it, so let democracy progress. Democracy is not only elections, it is also values.”

Pressed further as to whether he would urge Egypt’s military to intervene against the Muslim Brotherhood, Levy said: “I will urge the prevention of them coming to power, but by all sorts of means.”

I should say that Levy, with the idea that national destiny should be guided a Hegelian democracy-geist channeled by infallible values-helmsman Bernard Henri-Levy, instead of that stupid ballot box, is…creepy.

Erdogan, on the other hand, is not racking up the points for democratically-elected Islamist-tinged governments.  In response to his unpleasant experience with values-democracy—the demonstrations in Gezi Square—it’s all payback all the time, as Emre  Kizilkaya reports in his invaluable Istanbulian blog:

[P]lease check the latest news:
  • And you don't need to be a celebrity or a large institution to get punished, even if you had passively supported the Gezi Park protests. Just two examples: 1) At least 19 people, including an 86 years old woman from Antalya, were fined 5,000 dollars because they supported the protests by banging pots and pans. 2) A driver in Hatay was fined 50 dollars because he supported the protests by honking.

There is a distinct shortage of silver linings in this situation, even for Saudi Arabia which, I imagine itself, is bracing itself for a existential struggle with MB-inspired Islamists who have abandoned any expectation of political accommodation.

As for the PRC, even if it is reveling in another mass democracy-fueled debacle in the Middle East, I think it will draw the unwelcome lesson that its preferred interlocutor, the United States, is increasingly unable to control its allies—either in the Middle East or Asia.  No silver linings there, either.