Tuesday, May 18, 2010

China Weighs in on the Iran/Turkey/Brazil Agreement

Update

If the U.S. can't sabotage the ITB agreement, it will do its best to ignore it.

According to the Guardian.

A new set of United Nations sanctions are almost certain to be imposed on Iran next month, after Russia and China today agreed to support punitive action against Tehran's military and financial institutions, according to a security council source.

The Russian and Chinese move came as a surprise to the US and Britain, who had been braced for several more weeks of negotiation. Moscow and Beijing have over the last few months been either lukewarm or downright opposed to the idea of sanctions. The Obama administration has been working for months try to bring China and Russia round.
...

A draft security council resolution was agreed early today by the five permanent members of the security council – the US, Britain, China, Russia and France. The resolution is to be sent to the other 10 members of the council later today.

Hmmm.

I would speculate that the United States was very anxious to get this draft circulated in order to counteract the news of the ITB agreement. So maybe some hurried caving in to Chinese reservations provoked the "surprise".

China, for its part, has frequently expressed its support for the "two-track" process, so I suppose it would be awkward for Beijing to hold up the drafting process if the draft reflected most of its stated concerns.

However, China knows perfectly well that watering down the UN sanctions doesn't solve the problem.

The United States has gone out of its way to telegraph its position that harsher national and EU sanctions are a certainty once an enabling UN resolution is out of the way, as the Washington Post tells us:

Diplomats said that some of the proposed language in the current resolution was added with the full knowledge that it would be removed by the Russians and Chinese -- but then could be revived in the European resolution. The individual country sanctions would come after the European Union has acted and would be led by the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other like-minded nations, diplomats said.

So, the United States strategy could be rephrased as "meaningless sanctions through the UN to enable meaningful national sanctions (without any meaningful Chinese input) down the road."

By spurning the ITB deal, the United States has committed itself to the sanctions route.

Given America's enthusiasm for playing geopolitical chicken with China on this issue, I think Beijing will probably blink, keep its head down, and perhaps even vote for UN sanctions despite the consequences.

Beijing might be thinking that national sanctions would simply drive Iran further into the PRC camp. However, given the Pandora's box element of runaway national sanctions, I doubt China's leaders welcome the unpredictable risk and confrontation they involve (a caution that it might be wise for the Obama administration to emulate).

It is more likely that China will encourage diplomacy over the next few weeks, console Turkey and Brazil (who are undoubtedly insulted at the United States' dismissive treatment of their initiative), and try to sort out the geopolitical wreckage to its advantage if and when sanctions do come down.

Original post below:

They like it.

In addition to having the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman speak positively of the agreement at the regular press conference, the MOFA drew special attention to it by extracting remarks Foreign Minister Yang Jiezhi made at to Chinese and Tunisian reporters (the president of Tunisia is visiting Beijing) and posting it as a separate statement on its Chinese language page.

Yang stated China had noted reports concerning the agreement negotiated between Iran, Turkey, and Brazil and "welcomed and appreciated" the diplomatic efforts of the involved parties.

In Chinese, the phrase is, "欢迎和赞赏".

欢迎--the well-known "huanying" or "welcome"--is pretty much meaningless diplomatic puffery.

赞赏 on the other hand, is quite a positive term. It means "appreciate and admire" and is just one degree short of "endorse".

Since China wasn't a party to the agreement, they wouldn't have been likely to use the term "endorse" in any case.

There was no mention of the process-related reservations and suspicions that all the other permanent Security Council members including Russia chose to voice.

The dominant theme for Yang's statement was the success of diplomacy, which, in this context, is an implied criticism of excessive reliance on sanctions.

He concluded his statement with the remark

中方愿意与有关各方一道为推动伊核问题的外交解决发挥建设性作用。

"The Chinese side is willing to work together with the concerned parties to play a constructive role in the diplomatic resolution of the Iran issue."

All in all, a strong Chinese statement of support and a sign that China is calling for more attention to the diplomacy side of dual track as the US labors to shift the focus back to the sanctions track.

19 comments:

bat said...

I unquestionably understand what you have said. In fact, I browsed throughout your other articles and I think that you’re certainly right. Congrats with this site.
Frankfurt hotels

nituroy.com said...

Explore the profiles of guwahati escorts, guwahati call girls, call girls in guwahati and
escorts in guwahati for female companionship in top rated hotels. Get affordable
escort services in guwahati hotels now.Nitu Roy is a popular and
trusted name in the field of call girl service.
Guwahati Escorts
Guwahati escort service

Anonymous said...

I need to seek destinations with important data on given point and give them to educator our feeling and the article. 토토

Anonymous said...

You made some decent points there. I looked over the internet with the issue and discovered most people goes along with with the web site. 바카라사이트

카지노게임사이트 said...

카지노게임사이트 Wow! You are thinking through your choices. That shows your strength

Riview Games said...

I was so delighted to see your writing. I was so pleased to gather all the write-ups I was searching for simultaneously. I have actually been creating a great deal of points similar to this, also. Simply provide me a possibility. I would certainly like you to have a look at my writing. 우리카지노

oncadaycomm said...

I think this is an informative post and it is very beneficial and knowledgeable. Therefore, I would like to thank you for the endeavors that you have made in writing this article. All the content is absolutely well-researched. Thanks 온라인카지노
(mm)

komakdon said...

the father of optimized design, were alive today, he could not deny that the title was appropriate.http://www.jahannews.com/news/771453

토토사이트 said...

There is definately a great deal to find out about this topic. I really like all of the points you've made. 검증놀이터

토토사이트 said...

This is a topic that is near to my heart… Thank you! Exactly where are your contact details though? 토토검증

토토사이트 said...

This is exceptionally instructive substance and composed well for a change. It's pleasant to see that a few individuals still efficient information and facts, hence notice 메이저검증

Anonymous said...

Wow, great blog article I'll come often. It's nice to see a lot of good comments here. Thank you. 토토커뮤니티

Anonymous said...

this web site is genuinely nice and the people are 먹튀사이트 Your post has really helped me a lot

Anonymous said...

Cool. I'll be back every day Please always write good comments 토토검증

sportstotome said...

It’s very straightforward to find out any topic on net as compared to textbooks, as I found this post at this site.

스포츠토토
바카라사이트
파워볼 메이저사이트
카지노사이트

sportstotome said...

I wanted to write you one little bit of word to say thanks a lot yet again for your personal amazing tactics you have documented above. I’m sure there are lots of more pleasant sessions in the future for people who start reading your blog.

사설토토
카지노
파워볼사이트
온라인카지노

sportstotome said...

I am constantly thought about this, thank you for posting. It’s very straightforward to find out any topic on net as compared to textbooks, as I found this post at this site.

사설토토
카지노
파워볼사이트
온라인카지노

frzn said...

You may have heard about digital currency over and over again, or even entered this pristine and attractive space yourself. ارز الون The digital currency space is one of the most lucrative and popular financial markets around the world.

frzn said...

Even thinking about all the stresses of life and how to deal with them can be really frustrating, http://am-ahmadi.ir/ but the fact that you are here shows that you want to do something about it, and that's a good start.