I’m still an agnostic on the Uyghurs dunnit theory, at least
as far as the “aggrieved Uyghurs bombed the Erawan shrine to kill Chinese
tourists in revenge for repatriation of Uyghurs to PRC” way.
The only things we know for sure right now is that a) the
Thai government is anxious to manage & control this story b) the Thai
police leaks like a sieve and c) one has to wonder if the government’s main
priority is to put a pretty frame on this story and hang it up as soon as
possible.
There appears to be a definite Uyghur element in the case, judging by the detentions of one suspect with a Uyghur name holding a PRC passport (that looks genuine) and another guy with a clumsily forged Turkish passport who, it is suspected, is probably a Uyghur. Add to that a big stack of bogus Turkish passports--an inescapable element in the conveyor belt of PRC Uyghurs to havens in Turkey--and there's the makings of a plausible Uyghur angle.
Under pressure from the PRC, the Thai government had indeed decided
to crack down on human trafficking of Uyghurs through Thailand facilitated by
bogus Turkish travel documents.
To reduce the attractiveness of Thailand as a refugee
highway, the Thai government decided to repatriate 109 Uyghurs, mainly men but
also including 24 women, to the PRC in July 2015.
In order to defuse the outrage of Uyghurs and their
sympathizers, the Thai government made a deal with the Turkish government at
the same time to send 170 Uyghurs, mainly women and children, to go on to
Turkey.
The latter development went virtually unreported in the Turkish press, which is usually eager to trumpet the Turkish role as protector of the Uyghurs, which leads me to believe the release was soft-pedaled by prior agreement to avoid annoying the PRC. Given this Turkish government involvement, I tend to discount theories attributing the attack to incensed Turkish hypernationalists a.k.a. The Grey Wolves.
The latter development went virtually unreported in the Turkish press, which is usually eager to trumpet the Turkish role as protector of the Uyghurs, which leads me to believe the release was soft-pedaled by prior agreement to avoid annoying the PRC. Given this Turkish government involvement, I tend to discount theories attributing the attack to incensed Turkish hypernationalists a.k.a. The Grey Wolves.
Maybe
the Thai government effort to take Thailand out of the Uyghur trafficking
picture did not sit well with the Uyghur trafficking networks inside Thailand. Judging from the people caught in the police
dragnet, the traffickers seem to be staffed by Uyghur and Thai Muslims working
out of some combination of profit and principle, and maybe they embarked upon a campaign of revenge.
But it seems to me more likely that the attack was linked to
an overall crackdown on human trafficking, a business that implicates quite a
few people in the Thai government and army. Uyghurs, in my view, may have executed the bombings...and fulfilled an important role as convenient
patsies.
For those of you who, like me, dwell in
connect-the-dots-istan, here’s an interesting item from the Guardian from June 2015, in other words in the midst of the Uyghur
repatriation effort and two months before the bombing:
Thailand’s state
prosecutors are pressing charges against more than 100 people, including an
army general, in a multinational human trafficking scandal that came to light
after dozens of bodies were discovered in the south of the country earlier this
year.
…
“The investigation
showed it is a big syndicate. There were networks that brought them [the
migrants] from overseas into the country systematically … The office of the
attorney general, therefore, treats it as a very important case,” office
spokesman Wanchai Roujanavong said.
The discovery has
intensified international pressure on Thailand to
crack down on smugglers. More than 50 people were arrested in a month,
including local politicians, government officials, police, and a senior-ranking
army officer who once oversaw human trafficking issues in the south.
Human rights groups
have long accused Thai authorities of collusion in the trafficking industry, but
officials have routinely denied the claims.
Apparently, “Thai authorities” included an army lieutenant general, Manas Kongpan, who was a kingpin in the south of Thailand, where most of the traffic (mainly of
Bengalis and Rohingya to Malaysia) takes place.
The investigation was in the hands of the Thai police, which
turned over its report to the Attorney General at the end of June.
Maybe the traffickers and their allies initiated a domestic
terror campaign to punish and warn off the Thai government from prosecuting the
case too aggressively.
This, to me, is a more convincing explanation of why the
Erawan shrine was bombed than the “revenge on Chinese” angle.
If the intent was to kill Chinese tourists, why not bomb…Chinatown?
Why not a vicious attack on “the pilgrim filled Wat Mangkon
Kamalawat, Bangkok's most important Chinese temple” as USA Today describes it?
Or the Wat Traimit, “Chinatown’s number one attraction”? For that matter, why not take a swing at the
Chinese embassy?
Why set off a bomb near a Hindu shrine next to the Grand
Hyatt?
After the bombing, there were several reports of unexploded
devices at the scene. If these reports
are true (I haven't seen any followup), it looks like the makings of a “double tap” attack: an initial device
goes off, drawing in first responders including police, who are the targets of
the secondary devices.
But even if the target of the attack wasn’t the Thai police,
I think the target was still Thai, not Chinese: specifically, Thai tourism. Counting indirect effects, tourism might make
up as much of 20% of Thai GDP; a chunk of GDP that is extremely vulnerable to
terrorism.
Understandable, then, that the Thai police would be most
uninterested in publicly exploring this motive, and encouraging the narrative
of an attack on Chinese by aggrieved Uyghurs instead.
The other troublesome issue for the official story, of
course, is that nobody has taken credit for the bombing. No aggrieved Uyghur groups, no ETIM, no ISIS,
nobody. So I draw the inference that
whatever beef the bombers had, it’s playing out in private fora, perhaps
related to Thai government/security/police policy.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Uyghur-linked human
traffickers actually committed the bombing; but maybe there was someone else
behind them, assisting them in the construction of these relatively
sophisticated devices, setting up escape routes, using them as cats’ paws and fall
guys…and in the process publicly rolling up a Uyghur trafficking operation facilitated by Turkey and detested by the PRC that
the Thai government had decided could no longer be tolerated.
And I would be inclined to think, given the vulnerability of
the Thai tourist sector and the possibility that elements of the Thai security
forces might be compromised, that the government might even be working toward
some sort of secret accommodation with whoever’s actually behind the bombings.
And I suspect the avalanche of leaks about this case are
designed to roadtest, perfect, and promote a neat narrative that the Thai
government hopes will put this ugly incident to bed.
And as for Turkey, preoccupied with its moves against the Kurds, the complex and deadly endgame in Syria, and stagemanaging/bumrushing an extremely dicy election, the AKP's youth wing busy attacking HDP and newspaper offices instead of harassing Chinese, real and perceived, for their offenses against the Uyghurs and Islam, maybe it will also be ready to close the books on its calamitous Uyghur refuge program.
And as for Turkey, preoccupied with its moves against the Kurds, the complex and deadly endgame in Syria, and stagemanaging/bumrushing an extremely dicy election, the AKP's youth wing busy attacking HDP and newspaper offices instead of harassing Chinese, real and perceived, for their offenses against the Uyghurs and Islam, maybe it will also be ready to close the books on its calamitous Uyghur refuge program.
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