Just to cheer everybody up:
Thereafter, would that
I were not among the men of the fifth generation, but either had died before or
been born afterwards. For now truly is a race of iron, and men never rest from
labour and sorrow by day, and from perishing by night; and the gods shall lay
sore trouble upon them. But, notwithstanding, even these shall have some good
mingled with their evils. And Zeus will destroy this race of mortal men also
when they come to have grey hair on the temples at their birth. The father will
not agree with his children, nor the children with their father, nor guest with
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them. Envy, foul-mouthed, delighting in evil, with scowling face, will go along
with wretched men one and all. And then Aidos and Nemesis, with their sweet
forms wrapped in white robes, will go from the wide-pathed earth and forsake
mankind to join the company of the deathless gods: and bitter sorrows will be
left for mortal men, and there will be no help against evil.
Actually, my contention is that times are not particularly
bad, and I believe the US political and social system is robust enough to
weather the current storm.
What I do think is that the United States is facing a
transitional crisis exacerbated by incompetent leadership. Not Obama. His successors. We'll need an FDR. Instead we’re gonna get Fala. Woof.
US elite opinion is pretty flummoxed about the whole Donald
Trump phenomenon, even though the core of his appeal seem pretty clear to me.
His campaign draws its energy from a lot of white Americans
who perceive the erosion of their economic and social advantages thanks to the
perennial “rich get richer” dynamic and inflection-point demographic changes,
symbolized by a two-term black president.
In the past, many whites expected they would have first claim on entry
into the Valhalla of middle-class comfort if and when the gates were flung
open. Not so much, today.
White political muscle is fading, symbolized by the fact
that Ronald Reagan won the presidency handily with 56% of the white vote in
1980, while Romney got 59% of the white vote in 2012 and lost. Here’s a guesstimate
that the Republicans would have to get 66% of the white vote in 2016 to win the
presidential election.
The GOP leadership’s anxiety over this demographic
phenomenon and its faltering attempts to move beyond its white base--symbolized
by its quixotic promotion of certified Hispanobozo Marco Rubio—has, I expect,
soured GOP white voters on their erstwhile political champion.
So, I feel pretty comfortable associating Trump with white
anxiety shading on panic. And, since my
definition of fascism is pretty strict, if idiosyncratic, I don’t worry too
much about a Trump or post-Trump overtly white--nationalist movement seizing state
power. Horses simply aren’t there,
demographically speaking. Here’s hoping
I’m right.
Interestingly, Bernie Sanders is discretely trolling this
reservoir of white discontent in search of supporters interested in a more
overtly economic explanation of their unhappiness, one that relies more on
current economic anxiety and analysis of social inequities than nostalgia for
past glories.
What particularly interests me is what this ruckus is that
many middle class and lower middle class voters are interested in
racism-and-socialism tinged political and economic solutions.
What does this say about the prevailing US doctrine of
race-blind politics and free market economics?
Well, what I think it points to is the inherent flaws of an
elite-based economic, social, and political order, flaws that are getting put
under more of a microscope as the US system creeps into crisis.
Funny thing is, by conventional metrics, the US system isn’t
doing so bad, jobs and economy-wise.
I think the crisis was triggered by the demographic shift,
which caused a lot of whites to question their future position in American
society. And that has translated into a
shift from “Hey, the US economy is unfair, but it’s unfair in my favor” to
“Hey, the US economy is unfair!”
And American elites, for whom the economy is always unfair in their favor, seem to
have a little trouble figuring out why the American system has declined into
such a clattery condition of dysfunction.
The Democratic and Republican leadership, in my opinion,
drank the Kool Aid. Their rather
self-serving assumption was that electoral/free market system was
self-regulating and would control and channel populist dissatisfaction while
the elites got on with governing the country and profiting—as their abilities
and energies unambiguously merited!—from its economic opportunities.
And they’re surprised that the clockwork mechanism might
need a little cleaning and winding.
Maybe it’s because they inherited this world, instead of building it.
Pro Tip: It takes more than good intentions, it takes hard
ugly work to keep a nation—specifically its elites--on top.
US populism of the “savory” and “unsavory” kinds,
both of which interfere with elite governance, were kept in check by a few
undemocratic/non-free market factors in the last few decades.
First of all, the US got a disproportionate share of global
economic growth when three major economic powers—Germany, Japan, and the Soviet
Union—were devastated by World War II.
Secondly, US political and economic populism were checked
both by the inherent “divide and rule” racial dynamics of a post-slavery
society, and by a concerted Federal attack on Communism, socialism, and radical
trade unionism, black nationalism and white
nationalism.
In my opinion, J. Edgar Hoover had as much to do with the
making of the American Century as FDR and Eisenhower.
American “exceptionalism” is born of exceptional circumstances,
opportunities, choices, and actions, not because God decided to put His/Her hand
up the Masonicly-inclined asses of our Founding Fathers to employ them as divine sock
puppets.
I am always astounded when the United States is
characterized as a “democracy”. It is a
republic, openly and avowedly anti-democratic by design to forestall the
populist excesses symbolized by the French Revolution. Blacks not only didn’t get the vote in the
beginning; they were counted as only 3/5 of a person to balance the political
power of northern and southern states. Women
didn’t get the vote until the 20th century. Even today, with a near universal adult franchise
(not counting those 5.85 convicted
felons disenfranchised in 2015, including an estimated 1 in 13 African
American adults), the state structure, Electoral College, gerrymandering,
constitutional protections etc. guarantee that the “democratic will” has to
make several passes through the “republican” meatgrinder before its gooey
remains emerge to become law.
The American political and social system is designed to keep
elites in charge, and divide and disaggregate populist political
movements. But it’s still effective
control by a minority, and it takes prosperity, exceptional leaders and, I’m
afraid, frequent recourse to the discourse of domestic threats and overseas
wars to make the majority forget they surrendered control of their futures to “the
best and brightest”.
When people are feeling unhappy, scared, poor, and pushed
around, believe their futures at risk, and the elite class is propping up
obvious clowns, opportunists, and incompetents as their purported political
leaders, they begin to remember that.
President Obama, whom I believe possessed the
highest personal caliber of any president in the last century, barely
kept populist agitation in check. The bunch running for president this
year doesn't seem at all up to the task.
Which is why both the Democratic and Republican parties are both under stress from two populist movements led by two personalities whose abilities to channel that populism responsibly and govern competently and effectively are, to be generous, questionable.
Which is why both the Democratic and Republican parties are both under stress from two populist movements led by two personalities whose abilities to channel that populism responsibly and govern competently and effectively are, to be generous, questionable.
Elite incomprehension in the face of racist and socialist
agitation—strains that have always been nascent in US society and are now
resurgent—is, to me, pretty damning proof that our second-and-third generation
elites are moving into the Iron Age of decline and decadence.
The Panglossian “best of all possible worlds” “set and
forget” assertion that the Constitution and electoral mechanisms reliably ensured a
perpetually smoothly functioning US society is still the governing dogma of US
elites. They've lost the plot.
This profound cluelessness is typified by the child-like faith that, if Trump is simply shown to be a nasty man, his support will just melt away.
But now it’s going to take more money, effort, PR, and,
maybe violence to convince everybody else.
What comes after the Iron Age?
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