…though, to be accurate, loyal readers of China Matters knew
the skinny as it happened, three years ago and the Western media is now playin’
ketchup.
From today’s Guardian:
Former Finnish president and Nobel peace prize laureate Martti Ahtisaari said western powers failed to seize on the proposal. Since it was made, in 2012, tens of thousands of people have been killed and millions uprooted, causing the world’s gravest refugee crisis since the second world war.
…
But he said that the
US, Britain and France were so convinced that the Syrian dictator was about to
fall, they ignored the proposal.
As the Guardian ruefully points out, most of the
quarter-million fatalities and millions of refugees were generated after early 2012. The total death toll in early 2012 was…less
than 10,000.
Also consider this an instance of neoliberal ass-covering, as if the Western allies were just waiting for Assad "to fall."
I guess now the "foreign backed insurrection worked so well in Libya and only Russian and Iranian support is standing in the way of an identical democratic nirvana in Syria" alternative history has exploded, it's time for Plan C a.k.a. "the toothpaste is going BACK IN THE TUBE, people" (Plan A the optimistic "indigenous democracy movement will take down Assad while we cheer from the sidelines and provide just a teensy bit of arms & support" stance of 2011, Plan B being 2012 to date "the jihadis will lick Assad with a big assist from us you betcha.")
Nope, the full story of Syria in 2012 includes multiple sins of commission, not just omission, chief among them promoting a strategy of foreign-backed insurrection that tossed most of Syria and its people into a meatgrinder for three years...without bringing down Assad.
Also consider this an instance of neoliberal ass-covering, as if the Western allies were just waiting for Assad "to fall."
I guess now the "foreign backed insurrection worked so well in Libya and only Russian and Iranian support is standing in the way of an identical democratic nirvana in Syria" alternative history has exploded, it's time for Plan C a.k.a. "the toothpaste is going BACK IN THE TUBE, people" (Plan A the optimistic "indigenous democracy movement will take down Assad while we cheer from the sidelines and provide just a teensy bit of arms & support" stance of 2011, Plan B being 2012 to date "the jihadis will lick Assad with a big assist from us you betcha.")
The facts that the domestic
insurrection had failed in late 2011 (with the crushing of resistance in
Homs) and that the EOA (Enemies of Assad i.e. the GCC, Turkey, the US, and its
EU pilotfish) had switched to a strategy of externally supported regime
collapse was clear to objective observers as
it happened.
As evidence, I attach two pieces of mine. The first one, from one from November 2011, The Syrian Revolution Hijacked, mordantly concludes:
The democratic revolution ship has sailed. What’s going on today is a foreign-supported
insurrection.
...
The
Syrian revolutionaries were too weak to get the nation they wanted.
They’ll have to make do with whatever state that Turkey, the Gulf powers, and the western democracies decide to give them.
They’ll have to make do with whatever state that Turkey, the Gulf powers, and the western democracies decide to give them.
It also includes a sinister cameo from Victoria Nuland, a guest appearance by Islamist muscle imported via Turkey, and a startling prescient prediction by M. Badhrakumar concerning a possible Turkish incursion into northern Syria.
The second piece, July 17, 2012: the Day America Exited the 9/11 Era...By Entering an Alliance with Al Qaeda uses recent tittle tattle to update a piece I wrote in 2012 a week after
a botched decapitation strike/regime collapse operation engineered by the United
States.
To placate the TL;DR crowd, here’s the main takeaway from that
piece:
July 17, 2012, the day the US, Europe, Turkey, and the GCC optimistically thought they could wrap up the Syria crisis in a few weeks with a well-timed campaign of terror and insurrection starting in Damascus.Recently, a Beirut based newspaper, As-Safir, published a report on the July 2012 bombing (not aerial bombing, a C4 boobytrap) that wiped out Bashar al-Assad’s “security cell” a.k.a. his national security team during their daily strategy session in Damascus.As translated by an outfit called Mideastwire, As-Safir claims the bombing was a decapitation strike as part of an elaborately choreographed scheme by the U.S. to collapse the Syrian government and military and smooth the way for a drive on Damascus by the Free Syrian Army and the elevation of defecting general Manaf Tlass (who possessed limited capacities beyond a firm jaw well suited to Churchillian cigar-clenching but was adored by the French, perhaps because his socialite sister had allegedly been the mistress of a French foreign minister) to the presidency.…I am inclined to believe As-Safir, apparently a lefty, Syria-friendly outfit with a large circulation, because shortly after the bombing I drew the same conclusion, immortalized in my July 28, 2012 piece for Asia Times Online:
[A] funny thing happened last week. The Assad regime didn't collapse, despite an orchestrated, nation-wide assault (coordinated, we can assume, by the crack strategists of the international anti-Assad coalition): a decapitating terrorist bombing in the national security directorate, near-simultaneous armed uprisings in the main regime strongholds of Damascus and Aleppo, and the seizure of many of Syria's official border crossings with Iraq and Turkey.
This piece also features a rather farcical cameo by Juan Cole.
As the anti-Assad front cracks, I think we’ll see more of these sorts of reports leaking out, albeit framed as classic passive voiced "Assad didn't collapse" instead of "a massive West-supported regime-collapse effort failed completely to dislodge Assad while destroying Syria so now it's time to cut our losses, ignore responsibility,and MOVE ON."
Ironically, of course, these reports will be leaking out in outlets like the Guardian, whose fact-and-logic-challenged cheerleading for the collapse strategy will probably remain unexamined.
As the anti-Assad front cracks, I think we’ll see more of these sorts of reports leaking out, albeit framed as classic passive voiced "Assad didn't collapse" instead of "a massive West-supported regime-collapse effort failed completely to dislodge Assad while destroying Syria so now it's time to cut our losses, ignore responsibility,and MOVE ON."
Ironically, of course, these reports will be leaking out in outlets like the Guardian, whose fact-and-logic-challenged cheerleading for the collapse strategy will probably remain unexamined.
My personal feeling is that most of the EOA including
President Obama have grown tired of the game and would like to wind it
down. Even the GCC, hemorrhaging from
self-inflicted oil war and Yemen invasion wounds, may be willing to give
the anti-Assad jihad a rest. Among
governments, Turkey looks like the last “Assad must go” outlier in the official
coalition, as part of its apocalyptic high-stakes anti-Kurd policy in northern
Syria.
But then there’s Israel.
I suspect hardliners in Israel, the US natsec establishment are still
holding out for a military solution not just because they HATE ASSAD but
because stringing out the Syria crisis offers the most effective way to drive
wedges between the West and Russia and, more importantly Iran.
The hardliner/Likud Middle East policy is based on
maintaining the Iran vs. civilization existential threat dichotomy, which is
threatened by President Obama’s efforts at rapprochement via the nuclear deal…and
the wholesale stampede of European powers eager to shed the sanctions incubus
and do more business with Iran, which is (ironically, if you want to put it
that way) the only reasonably stable, war-free oil power in the Middle East.
The best way to keep Iran on the other side of the fence
from the West, in other words, is to sidetrack any talk of peace/transition
negotiations, sustain the assault on Assad, and elicit ever more overt and off-putting
support from Russia and Iran (which see the possibility of closing the books on
the Syria adventure and are determined to keep Assad hanging on).
At the very least, a second win for Iran (in Syria) is
forestalled. At best, during an
escalating crisis, Iran gets painted as an enemy of all that’s good and decent
and the wheels are pulled off the nuclear deal buggy—by instituting new US
sanctions against Iran, perhaps, which is apparently seen as a dealbreaker.
Enough predicting. Time will tell, I guess.
Here are the pieces covering the evolution and execution of the EOA regime collapse
strategy in 2011-2012.
Tuesday,
November 29, 2011
The Syrian revolution—a broad-based,
non-sectarian, democratic anti-despot national movement—has failed.
Mass demonstrations never
materialized in Damascus and Aleppo. The military and security forces
didn’t crack. The Alawite on Sunni crackdown (Alawites form the backbone
of the army/security forces/irregular goon squads) fomented sectarian
divisions, with most non-Sunnis minorities cleaving desperately to the Assad
regime. Prosperous Sunnis have presumably been hedging their bets by
donating to the anti-government cause in recent days but have not explicitly
abandoned the regime.
The Gulf powers and the West would
have welcomed a Ba’athist regime collapse at the hand of domestic
anti-government demonstrations.
That didn’t happen.
As the peaceful democratic movement has faltered, there has
been no move from the Western/Gulf powers to encourage reconciliation and
reforms.
Quite the contrary, in fact.
Whenever Assad makes an offer of reform, the Western powers dismiss it as too late and/or insincere.
Victoria Nuland, the State Department spokesperson, counseled Syrian dissidents to defy the Assad regime’s offer of an amnesty in return for handing in illegal weapons, as the LA Times reported:
Syria accused Washington of "inciting sedition, supporting the acts of killing and terrorism," the official Syrian news agency said, quoting an official source at the Foreign Ministry.
…
The comments came a day after State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland declared that she would counsel Syrians to reject the amnesty, in which those the government terms arms violators were asked to turn themselves in with their weapons "to the nearest police station" during a one-week period that began Saturday. Those who surrender and have not killed anyone "will be released soon," the Interior Ministry vowed.
"I wouldn't advise anybody to turn themselves in to regime authorities at the moment," Nuland told reporters in Washington.
Nuland, by the way, is married to PNACer and neocon pundit Robert Kagan. Recalling Dick Cheney's enthusiasm for driving to Damascus post-Iraqi Freedom, maybe we should call the Syria enterprise Clean Break II: The Do-Over.
Anyway, democracy didn't work. Time for Plan B.
Quite the contrary, in fact.
Whenever Assad makes an offer of reform, the Western powers dismiss it as too late and/or insincere.
Victoria Nuland, the State Department spokesperson, counseled Syrian dissidents to defy the Assad regime’s offer of an amnesty in return for handing in illegal weapons, as the LA Times reported:
Syria accused Washington of "inciting sedition, supporting the acts of killing and terrorism," the official Syrian news agency said, quoting an official source at the Foreign Ministry.
…
The comments came a day after State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland declared that she would counsel Syrians to reject the amnesty, in which those the government terms arms violators were asked to turn themselves in with their weapons "to the nearest police station" during a one-week period that began Saturday. Those who surrender and have not killed anyone "will be released soon," the Interior Ministry vowed.
"I wouldn't advise anybody to turn themselves in to regime authorities at the moment," Nuland told reporters in Washington.
Nuland, by the way, is married to PNACer and neocon pundit Robert Kagan. Recalling Dick Cheney's enthusiasm for driving to Damascus post-Iraqi Freedom, maybe we should call the Syria enterprise Clean Break II: The Do-Over.
Anyway, democracy didn't work. Time for Plan B.
The foreign powers interested in
Assad’s fall—and stripping Iran of a regional ally--have made the decision to
piggyback a foreign-supported, foreign-funded insurrection on the faltering
anti-government movement.
More accurately, the democratic
revolution is now an uncertain and unwilling passenger on the Gulf-funded
military machine rumbling toward Damascus.
Havens for anti-Assad fighters have materialized in Turkey,
and arms and money are flooding in from all over the place.
Weapons and money for anti-Assad insurrectionists has been trickling in for months, to the blissful disregard of western news outlets fixated on the images of democracy demonstrators struggling against oppression.
Now that the political option is sliding off the table and it is clear a foreign-funded insurrection is needed to remove the Assad regime, the gusher of arms and cash has become too big to ignore.
But the story doesn’t require old-fashioned reporting anymore.
Just go down to a Turkish foreign ministry presser for tea, cookies, and a targeted backgrounder.
Weapons and money for anti-Assad insurrectionists has been trickling in for months, to the blissful disregard of western news outlets fixated on the images of democracy demonstrators struggling against oppression.
Now that the political option is sliding off the table and it is clear a foreign-funded insurrection is needed to remove the Assad regime, the gusher of arms and cash has become too big to ignore.
But the story doesn’t require old-fashioned reporting anymore.
Just go down to a Turkish foreign ministry presser for tea, cookies, and a targeted backgrounder.
Turkey has positioned itself as the
indispensable Western/Gulf proxy on Syria’s northern border.
Iran’s IRNA news agency passed on a report in Turkey’s Millyet
tabloid a major Turkish news outlet. IRNA is sometimes selective and/or
inaccurate in its presentation of international news, so I’m passing it on with
a caveat, but the report as presented passes the smell test for me:
According
to Milliyet, as cited by IRNA, France has sent its military training forces to
Turkey and Lebanon to coach the so-called Free Syrian Army -- a group of
defectors operating out of Turkey and Lebanon -- in an effort to wage war
against Syria's military.
The report added that the French, British, and Turkish authorities “have reached an agreement to send arms into Syria.”
The Turkish daily said that the three have informed the US about training and arming the Syrian opposition.
According to Milliyet, a group of armed rebels are currently stationed in Turkey's Hatay Province near the border with Syria.
The report comes as an earlier report had revealed that the British and French intelligence agencies have reportedly tasked their agents with contacting Syrian dissidents based in the northern Lebanese town of Tripoli in order to help fuel unrest in Syria.
Reports also said that French intelligence agents have been sent to northern Lebanon and Turkey to build the first contingents of the Free Syrian Army out of the deserters who have fled Syria.
The report added that the French, British, and Turkish authorities “have reached an agreement to send arms into Syria.”
The Turkish daily said that the three have informed the US about training and arming the Syrian opposition.
According to Milliyet, a group of armed rebels are currently stationed in Turkey's Hatay Province near the border with Syria.
The report comes as an earlier report had revealed that the British and French intelligence agencies have reportedly tasked their agents with contacting Syrian dissidents based in the northern Lebanese town of Tripoli in order to help fuel unrest in Syria.
Reports also said that French intelligence agents have been sent to northern Lebanon and Turkey to build the first contingents of the Free Syrian Army out of the deserters who have fled Syria.
For those of you who prefer to get
your Turkey/Syria news from a reliable Crusader source, here’s an
eyebrow-raising item
from the Daily Telegraph, albeit via Hurryet on November 27:
Syrian
dissidents held secret talks Nov. 25 with Libya’s new authorities and Turkish
authorities in Istanbul with the aim of securing weapons and money for their
insurgency against Damascus, the Daily Telegraph has reported.
Syrian opposition group requested “assistance” from the Libyan representatives and were offered arms, and potentially volunteers, during the meeting, the daily reported Nov. 25.
“There is something being planned to send weapons and even Libyan fighters to Syria,” a Libyan source said on condition of anonymity. “There is a military intervention on the way. Within a few weeks you will see.”
Preliminary discussions about arms supplies took place when members of the Syrian National Council (SNC) – the country’s main opposition movement – visited Libya earlier this month, said the daily.
Syrian opposition group requested “assistance” from the Libyan representatives and were offered arms, and potentially volunteers, during the meeting, the daily reported Nov. 25.
“There is something being planned to send weapons and even Libyan fighters to Syria,” a Libyan source said on condition of anonymity. “There is a military intervention on the way. Within a few weeks you will see.”
Preliminary discussions about arms supplies took place when members of the Syrian National Council (SNC) – the country’s main opposition movement – visited Libya earlier this month, said the daily.
“The Libyans are offering money, training and weapons to the Syrian National Council,” said Wisam Taris, a human rights campaigner with links to the SNC. Last month, Libya’s interim government became the first in the world to recognize Syria’s opposition movement as the country’s “legitimate authority.”
Large shipments of weapons have not yet been sent, said activists, mainly because of logistical difficulties.
But proposals for a “buffer zone” inside Syria, monitored by the Arab League, or the likely emergence of an area inside the country controlled entirely by rebels, could solve this problem. “The [Libyan] council’s offer is serious,” said Taris.
Sources in the Libyan town of Misrata suggested that some weapons may already have been sent. Some smugglers were caught selling small arms to Syrian buyers in Misrata, said a man who trafficked guns to Libya’s rebels during the country’s civil war.
Libyans feel closely aligned to the Syrian cause, said Hameda al-Mageri, from the Tripoli Military Council.
The Tripoli Military Council is the creature of Islamist strongman Abdelhakim Belhadj.
Belhadj is the preferred in-Libya muscle of the Gulf States—“proxy” is perhaps not too strong a term. He recently found it expedient to issue a non-denial denial that Qatar had dispatched nine planeloads of arms to Tripoli for the exclusive use of his forces.
Belhadj was denied a seat in the new Libyan cabinet thanks to Western anxiety over any overtly Islamist tinge to the proceedings. In an inspiring demonstration of the give-and-take of new Libyan democracy, a representative from Zintan was able to leverage his town’s continued and suspiciously prolonged local custody of Saif Qaddafi into a winning bid for the defense slot.
Instead, Belhadj now has the opportunity to pursue profitable mischief in Syria on behalf of the Gulf states and their anti Sh’ia/anti-Iranian counter revolution (and perhaps dissipating the intimidating shadow of Belhadj and a number of his well-trained and hardened fighters from the streets of Tripoli).
In an amusing sideline, Belhadj--presumably on his way to the Istanbul meeting--got a friendly hazing at the airport from his Zintan buddies. The brief detention was noted by the local Libyan press; the thing about the money was apparently glossed by a pro-Gaddafi website (they still exist!):
The battalion of Zintan men has arrested him after the
discovery that the passport is registered with the competent authorities and
carrying fake name.
After the arrest the rebels received a call from the President of the Council Mustafa Abdul
Jalil asking the Alzentan and officials at the airport in Tripoli to allow
Hakim Belhaj to leave the country, this has been found on the large sum of
money inside the bag Khuwaildi Belhadj.
The democratic revolution ship has sailed. What’s going on today is a foreign-supported insurrection.
The Chinese and the Russians have a clear-eyed understanding of what’s going on.
The PRC is loath to get on the wrong side of Saudi Arabia, its largest energy supplier, by going too far to defend Syria.
Moscow, which has a real stake in its Iran alliance and cares about the fate of Assad’s regime, has shown no such qualms.
A selection of headlines from RIA Novosti gives an idea of what a responsible multi-lateral response on Syria—as opposed to a hurried military ass-kicking enabled by global anti-Iranian forces meant to obscure the failure of a peaceful "color revolution"—would have looked like:
Syria welcomes Russia as intermediary in reconciliation talks
Syrian opposition should not boycott reforms—Russian FM
Moscow calls on Arab League to work for peace in Syria
None of this is happening, of course.
As to where this all ends up, I will outsource the increasingly plausible endgame--Turkey is ready to invade Syria--to the estimable M. Badhrakumar of Asia Times (and his personal blog, Indian Punchline):
Turkey and its western allies are transferring the Libyan fighters whom they trained and armed to depose Muammar Gaddafi to Syria. Around 600 Libyan ‘volunteers’ have entered Syria. Daily Telegraph reported that secret meetings were held on Friday in Istanbul between the Turkish officials and the Syrian opposition representatives and the Libyan fighters. Large-scale infiltration of weapons from Turkey and Jordan have been going on for months to create civil-war conditions in Syria, but this is the first move to introduce ‘volunteers’.
The move is necessitated by the
failure to induce defections form the Syrian armed forces, except a mere
handful. Turkey and the western powers are desperate to create the myth of
a ‘Syrian resistance’ force without which their blatant aggression will be in
full display.
…
Things seem to be heading for a
flash point, indeed. The sure sign is that US V-P Joseph Biden is heading for Ankara in the weekend. It is a major
signal of the US giving the go-ahead to Turkey to act on Syria without fear.
Again, Jordanian King, Abdullah, travelled to israel. He is Saudi Arabia’s
‘back channel’ to Israel and a key regional ally for the western
intelligence.
Turkey is indeed shedding its fear
of the unknown and is coming out into the open on the Syrian situation. Turkish
FM Ahmet Davitoglu indicated today for the first time that
Turkey is all set for invasion of Syria once it gets the green signal from its
western allies. He said this before heading for the combined meeting of EU
foreign ministers and Arab League representatives (read Saudi Arabia and Qatar).
The day Davutoglu spoke, November
29, will stand out as a notable date in the chronicle of the Turkish Republic
that Kemal Ataturk founded. Ataturk’s ‘red line’ used to be that Turkey
should never get entangled in the affairs of the Muslim Middle East but should
instead concentrate on its own ‘modernization’. Evidently, the Islamist
government in power today thinks Turkey is today ‘modern’ enough already and
can now go back and reclaim its Ottoman legacy.
A Turkish army moving into an Arab
country - it is a historic point. It is a century after the Turks were driven
out by the ‘Arab revolt’. The matrix is dripping with irony. The Arab
revolt against the Turks was instigated by Great Britain. And Britain, although
a far weaker power today, is still playing a seminal role - except, it is
encouraging the Turks to return to the Arab world. One hundred years ago,
Britain successfully pitted the Arabs against the Turks. Today, Turks join
hands with some Arabs who have a grouse against some other Arabs.
The Syrian revolutionaries were too weak to get the nation they wanted.
They’ll have to make do with whatever state that Turkey, the Gulf powers, and the western democracies decide to give them.
Thursday,
March 19, 2015
I note
with interest that Thomas Friedman, the premier moral imbecile of American
journalism, is spitballing the idea of using ISIS to roll back Iran.
Friedman is still an outlier. The moderate voice in hawkish Middle East
policy today, on the other hand, belongs to analysts calling for supporting al
Qaeda as the preferred US asset against Iran and, for that matter, ISIS.
This marks a sea change in American
Middle East public punditry and a sign that the United States has moved beyond
the 9/11 era, in which our national policy and indeed our national identity was
largely defined by getting those AQ bad guys who had knocked down the World
Trade Center, blown a hole in the Pentagon, and killed over 3000 Americans on a
single day in 2001.
Now, the oppose-Iran obsession has
resumed center stage, at least for the Beltway-friendly commentariat, and al
Qaeda is seen as a suitable and acceptable partner, especially since the
current Sunni extremist champion, ISIS, is enduring an ass-kicking at the hands
and boots of the Iraq government, Shi’ite militias, and Iranian Revolutionary
Guard units.
It is sobering to consider that the
United States has done less to un-f*ck-up the Middle East in 14 years than Iran
has been able to accomplish in a few months of campaigning in eastern
Iraq. Another sign, if anybody is paying
attention, that Iran is the least dysfunctional polity and partial democracy in
the Middle East, while Uncle Sam is trapped driving in circles in a clown car
fighting for the wheel with Saudi Arabian autocrats and Israeli apartheidists.
No wonder President Obama wants
rapprochement with Iran and a quick pivot outta here to the peaceful and
prosperous precincts of Asia. Good luck with
that!
As to the odious al Qaeda alliance,
the bad news is that it is more than the fever dream of frustrated Beltway
analysts.
The de facto US-AQ alliance has been
going on in Syria for almost three years.
In fact, I think I can put a date on
its formal unveiling: July 17, 2012, the day the US, Europe, Turkey, and the
GCC optimistically thought they could wrap up the Syria crisis in a few weeks
with a well-timed campaign of terror and insurrection starting in Damascus.
Recently, a Beirut based newspaper,
As-Safir, published a report on the July 2012 bombing (not aerial bombing, a C4
boobytrap) that wiped out Bashar al-Assad’s “security cell” a.k.a. his national
security team during their daily strategy session in Damascus.
As translated by an
outfit called Mideastwire, As-Safir claims the bombing was a decapitation
strike as part of an elaborately choreographed scheme by the U.S. to collapse
the Syrian government and military and smooth the way for a drive on Damascus
by the Free Syrian Army and the elevation of defecting general Manaf Tlass (who
possessed limited capacities beyond a firm jaw well suited to Churchillian
cigar-clenching but was adored by the French, perhaps because his socialite
sister had allegedly been the mistress of a French foreign minister) to the
presidency.
Why should we care? With the cataract of blood and rubble and
anguish that has hurtled into the Syrian abyss since then, why should we care
that three of Assad’s henchman got blown up in July 2012?
Because a) the aftermath of the
attack revealed the essential robustness of the Syrian regime and command
structure and apparently convinced President Obama that strategies predicated
on quick regime collapse either by covert action or indignant rhetoric were
unlikely to remove Assad from his perch; b) Assad’s view of Western/GCC
negotiating sincerity was probably tempered by the awareness that they had
tried to murder him ; and c) the helter-skelter scheme revealed for the first
time the presence of armed extremists under the Al Qaeda banner as US
auxiliaries.
I am inclined to believe As-Safir,
apparently a lefty, Syria-friendly outfit with a large circulation, because
shortly after the bombing I drew the same conclusion, immortalized in my
July 28, 2012 piece for Asia Times Online:
[A]
funny thing happened last week. The Assad regime didn't collapse, despite an
orchestrated, nation-wide assault (coordinated, we can assume, by the crack
strategists of the international anti-Assad coalition): a decapitating
terrorist bombing in the national security directorate, near-simultaneous armed
uprisings in the main regime strongholds of Damascus and Aleppo, and the
seizure of many of Syria's official border crossings with Iraq and Turkey.
Points 1 and 2 are covered in the
As-Safir article, which apparently draws on tittle-tattle from a French
diplomat. As to the third point, seizure
of the border crossings, in July 2012 I wrote (refer to my ATOl
article for the links):
Juan Cole of
the University of Michigan laid out the big picture strategic thinking behind
some of the border seizures on his blog, Informed Comment:
If the FSA can take the third crossing from Iraq, at Walid, they can control truck traffic into Syria from Iraq, starving the regime. The border is long and porous, but big trucks need metalled roads, which are few and go through the checkpoints. Some 70% of goods coming into Syria were coming from Iraq, because Europe cut off trade with the Baath regime of Bashar al-Assad. The rebels are increasingly in a position to block that trade or direct it to their strongholds.
According
to an Iraqi deputy minister of the interior, the units that seized the border
were perhaps not the goodwill ambassadors that the Syrian opposition or Dr Cole
might have hoped for:
The top official said Iraqi border guards had witnessed the Free Syrian Army take control of a border outpost, detain a Syrian army lieutenant colonel, and then cut off his arms and legs.
"Then they executed 22 Syrian soldiers in front of the eyes of Iraqi soldiers."
They
reportedly also raised the al-Qaeda flag.
The forces participating in the operation at the Turkish border crossings were also an interesting bunch - and certainly not all local Syrian insurgents, as AFP reported:
The forces participating in the operation at the Turkish border crossings were also an interesting bunch - and certainly not all local Syrian insurgents, as AFP reported:
By Saturday evening, a group of some 150 foreign fighters describing themselves as Islamists had taken control of the post.
These fighters were not at the site on Friday, when rebel fighters captured the post.
Some of the fighters said they belonged to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), while others claimed allegiance to the Shura Taliban. They were armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles, rocket launchers and improvised mines.
The fighters identified themselves as coming from a number of countries: Algeria, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates - and the Russian republic of Chechnya…
Nice to remember that Juan Cole, who embarrassed himself mightily
by cheerleading the Libyan debacle, also applied his mad analytic and tactical
skillz to the Syrian fiasco.
Anyway, the appearance of armed Islamist extremists as part
of a meticulously if not particularly intelligently planned regime change
gambit in 2012: that’s what matters today.
Because even after the decapitation & collapse strategy
failed, the extremists stayed, presumably as executors of an open-ended
“success is not an option” “bleed Syria (and Iran)” strategy funded by Gulf
interests, supported by Turkish infrastructure, and condoned by the United
States.
And bleed Syria did.
The result is a butcher’s
bill of nearly one quarter of a million dead and 3.5 million refugees, over
90% incurred after the domestic insurrection failed in February 2012 and the
combined genius of the Western, Arab, and Turkish worlds was turned to
engineering regime change via external means.
As the sage said, success has a
thousand fathers and failure is an orphan.
So it is reprehensible but not too surprising that the Syrian horror is
now described in the ultimate hands-off passive voice fashion as “a tragedy”
and not “the knowing murder of hundreds of thousands and the immiserating of
millions by the funding, supply, facilitation, and diplomatic support of
thousands of paramilitaries by the United States, European states, Turkey,
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and now Israel (which is now providing medical facilities
to wounded AQ fighters at the Syrian border)”.
It is also darkly amusing that the
worse IS does, the more pre-emptive squealing one hears from the West about the
as yet unmaterialized threat of massive human rights violations against Sunnis
by Shi’a forces in areas recovered from IS.
And, to cap it, you get
chin-stroking in the press about common cause with AQ and/or ISIS to stop the
Iranian menace.
Which reminds me of the final
indispensable element in regime-change choreography: credulous, vociferous,
enabling media.
According to as-Safir, it was clear
at the early July 2012 Friends of Syria conference in Paris that something was
afoot:
When
a French diplomat stopped two journalists, a French and an Arab, in early July
2012, near a café adjacent to the French foreign ministry, the lights of the
Friends of Syria conference had grown dim at the conference center following
two exhausting days of debate that provided the impression to the meeting
participants that the toppling of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is now a
fait accompli.
…[T]he
diplomat revealed what he had in mind and advised the journalists to slow down
with their packing because a major event was going to take place in July. The
bets to topple Al-Assad in Paris and between the “Friends of Syria” had turned
into a mere matter of time.
I will be charitable and say,
despite these manifest signs (and, for that matter, the fact that an externally
choreographed regime change jamboree was under way was apparent even to an
outside observer like me), it was not clear to the legion of Western journos
covering Syria that they were getting played as part of some PR charade whose
primary purpose was to stampede Russian into abandoning Assad and supporting a
UNSC resolution condemning him, preferably with an Article 7 stinger approving
the use of force, thereby enabling transition to the West/GCC-backed
opposition.
At the New York Times, Neil
McFarquar (with considerable assistance: “Reporting was contributed by Dalal
Mawad and Hwaida Saad from Beirut, Rick Gladstone from New York, Ellen Barry
from Moscow, Isabel Kershner from Jerusalem, Elisabeth Bumiller and Eric
Schmitt from Washington, and an employee of The New York Times from Damascus,
Syria.”) asked
if the death knell was being sounded for Assad’s regime:
The
impact of the day’s events reverberated on multiple levels, piercing the
psychological advantage that Mr. Assad’s superior military strength has
provided in preserving the loyalty of his forces and frightening much of the
public into staying home. With the opposition energized and the government
demoralized, analysts wondered if other military units and trusted lieutenants
would be more inclined to switch sides — and if the government would retaliate
with an escalation of violence.
The
idea that a poorly organized, lightly armed opposition force could somehow get
so close to the seat of power raised questions about the viability of a once
unassailable police state.
In its final form, the title of the
piece is “Syrian Rebels Land Deadly Blow to Assad’s Inner Circle”. I suspect the original, more optimistic drift
of the piece is embodied in the URL:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/19/world/middleeast/suicide-attack-reported-in-damascus-as-more-generals-flee.html
Despite the telephoned and
optimistically spun blandishments of President Obama, Putin didn’t bite (I
expect he was still feeling the “Libya no-fly-zone burn”), and the anti-Assad
coalition had, in addition to botching the putsch, failed to strip the Assad
regime of Russian support. In fact, the
Russian Federation doubled down on its support of Assad instead. Which, I imagine, feeds the “Bad Vlad”
resentment that permeates Western capitals and editorial offices…
…exacerbated, certainly, by Putin’s
sabotaging of another brilliant Western scheme, this time in Ukraine…
…which, come to think of it,
explains my extremely jaundiced opinion of the reportorial and analytic
capacities of the pro-Kyiv journos, who exhibit a similar paired obliviousness
to incompetent, catastrophic, and morally bankrupt Western strategic gambits
with credulous retailing of anti-Russian novelties as their outlets and
colleagues previously displayed in the matter of Syria.
