Hey Everybody! Saudi Arabia & Turkey Just Made Us Another Sh*t Sandwich in the Middle East!

The big news today is that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are clubbing together to overthrow the Assad regime.

Actually, this is old news.  What happened today is that the news embargo was lifted and the AP’s Desmond Butler got to print the scoop.

It was apparent for a couple weeks that something along these lines was going to drop.

As I put it on Twitter on April 28, “Something is cooking in the kitchen”.

Let me explain, because it’s an interesting illustration of how the “open source” parsing thingamajig works, in kind of a backward way.

All of a sudden, starting around April 20, there were flurries of declarations from pundits and journos that Assad was going down.

Problem was, many of these pundits and journos were not the sort of people one would expect to have knowledge of the inner workings of the Assad regime (notoriously opaque) or the actual conditions on the battlefield (fragmented, confusing, very dangerous to investigate, and best understood by the Assad forces, not the countries blindly arming and funding proxies and grifters inside Syria).

These experts, on the other hand, seemed to be experts at access reporting and consulting with foreign policy decisionmakers in the US and the Gulf Countries.  In other words, they’re in the “champagne hopes and caviar dreams” business of reporting elite intentions and aspirations as facts.

Today, when the AP report appeared, I tweeted “and the dish is coming out of the kitchen. Will be interesting to see what pundits/media outlets in US endorse KSA/TK strategy.”

The Tweetgods were smiling on me, or at least sniggering nastily, since a couple minutes later this came over the wire, retweet of a humblebrag from Charles Lister of Brookings Doha:

This - https://twitter.com/AP/status/596325611196526592 … - [the AP report on the Turkey/KSA alliance—ed] was the primary catalyst behind this: https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/595687654303358977 ….[A May 5 article by Lister in Foreign Policy- "Why #Assad is Losing” –ed] Significant shifts taking place re. #Syria.

Yeah, baby!  

I had a good time snarking on this—and Lister’s apparent desire to advertise that Brookings Doha is an eager and able mouthpiece for the GCC ("Did you see my piece?  FP!")--because, quite frankly, Assad isn’t losing yet.   

But Saudi Arabia and Turkey dearly want to assert that meme (if not the more accurate "once our brilliant scheme is deployed there is absolutely NO WAY Assad can survive BWAHAHAHA!!!") into the Middle East narrative, especially I would guess in the hope that Iran, for the sake of its precious nuclear deal, reduces its aid to Assad.

So it’s hard to see all of these articles as much more than hopeful stenography (I should say that Josh Landis, a genuine Syria expert, does see genuine problems for Assad mainly, I guess, because he saw the KSA/Turkey alliance coming). 

Of course, as anyone should be able to tell you, the overt Turkish assistance to the rebels has been going on for a while, culminating in the capture of Idlib with the assistance of Turkish artillery and advisers and Ankara’s midwifing of an Islamist-heavy rebel alliance.  By a funny coincidence, this ostensibly indigenous triumph of rebel arms gives the anti-Assad forces a rest, recuperation, resupply, and remanning haven right on the Turkish border.

The only real question remaining is whether the US has greenlit this escapade, or whether impatient local powers Saudi Arabia and Turkey have “slipped the leash”.

I tend to think the US is on board, but is loath to openly back the effort since it is now almost entirely an Islamist play with very few of our adored secular/democratic/civil society forces in evidence.  Apparently, the optics, if not the reality, of the US working with Al Qaeda (or whatever Islamist force has repackaged itself as Al Qaeda) makes Uncle Sam gag.

But Sam Power appeared on Charlie Rose to declare, We gotta take care of Assad first, then IS.  I think that’s the tell that the US is good with the current strategy even though democracy is clearly out the window and the anti-Assad struggle is now repackaged not only as a sectarian struggle but, at least according to a commentator on Al Jazeera, one in which wholesale slaughter of Alawite civilians is OK.

Sam might need an extra glass of Chablis to wash that one down.

The other interesting element is the Israeli factor.  Israel has begun giving overt assistance to Islamists in Syria’s south, again with the idea of creating a useful haven.

And a couple days ago, a Saudi jetliner landed in Tel Aviv, ostensibly because of mechanical issues.  But it’s rumored the Saudi crown prince was on board, and my guess is it was easier to fly a bunch of Saudis to Israel to discuss Syria business than it was to get Israel’s general staff into Saudi Arabia to discuss the nuts and bolts of the upcoming campaign.

Then it’s Everybody on board?  Let’s unleash AP!

Even if a formal no-fly zone isn’t declared, maybe Israel will pitch in and degrade Syria’s air defenses and maybe take out the helicopters Assad uses extensively to shuttle troops to and fro and drop barrel bombs.

So, yeah, if all goes as planned, Assad’s in trouble.  He loses mobility, he can’t juggle his exhausted troops to block coordinated, simultaneous rebel advances from north and south, the Saudi bribe-o-matic machine is finally able to bag some genuine high level defectors, and Assad gets on--or almost gets on--a plane for Russia.

Just like Libya!  Success!

But remember, this is the same crew that is screwing up Yemen and I am not sure that Russia, Iran, and the PRC will respond to the determined public and private signalling from the anti-Assad coalition and decide to pull the plug on him.

Also bear in mind, after a month of bombing that has become pointless to the point that every sortie is a war crime against Yemen’s immiserated civilians, Saudi Arabia has yet to show the stones to send in ground troops and restore some semblance of order.  So even if the Syria scheme works and the jihadists can drive Assad out of Syria by themselves, the will and ability of Saudi Arabia and Turkey to go into Syria and slug it out with the victorious Islamist factions to put some kind of effective government in place in Damascus seems pretty dubious.

All in all, I am not confident that the combined wisdom of the world’s most reactionary theocracy and a reckless neo-Ottoman freebooter will deliver anything other than a failed state in Syria.

Like I said, Think Libya!

Maybe President Obama has decided, Let the Middle East go to hell and Hillary.  I'm off to Asia!

And meanwhile, world, enjoy this sh*t sandwich, courtesy of Saudi Arabia and Recip Erdogan!

Below in reverse order are my tweets over the last couple weeks.  Not just boasting here.  It’s useful in retrospect to see how and through what channels these policy decisions emerge prior to the formal unveiling.  Also includes some serious & informed reports by Landis, Lund, etc.

May 7, 2015

Kinda interesting. That boomlet of "Assad is losing" articles should have been billed as "KSA/TK leak strategy to friendly thinktanks".

 Charles Lister of Brookings Doha bragging about it. "Stenography? Analysis? We dont draw these artificial distinctions at BI Doha."

I'd also say Never underestimate KSA/TK ability to f*ck up a regime change conspiracy. And don't assume Iran/RF will ditch Assad.

as to marginalized US impotently wringing hands on sidelines meme, not quite convinced. Maybe it's US gives KSA/TK Syria hunting license

in return for free hand on Iran. Another good reason for US to pivot to Asia, considering only ME policy instrument is Islamists & region

basically screwed. Sorry, hopeful liberal democracy types! Thinking about #ArabSpringUnsprung

Pretty safe assumption that Sam Power had foreknowledge of KSA/TK anti-Assad offensive when she went on Charlie Rose to say "Assad gotta go

before we can deal w/ IS". In other words, US on board w/ whole sh*t show & "oh no TK/KSA slipped leash" is PR BS meant to distance US from

fact that US HAS PUT ME POLICY IN HANDS OF AQ & OTHER ISLAMIST MILITANTS. Gotta wonder how Sam reconciles this w/ her HR nobility pose

"Well, sometimes human rights best served by putting unlimited arms, money, and impunity in hands of homicidal fanatics". Heckuva job Sam

Gonna re-up my piece "July 17, 2012: The Day America Exited the 9/11 Era…By Entering an Alliance with Al Qaeda" http://tinyurl.com/paj2kgq 

While we're at it, don't forget Israel's role in backing rebels in south Syria...or that KSA Crown Prince flew to Tel Aviv day before

de facto press embargo ended and ap finally ran the story. Attitude in Washington maybe, "It'll be a bloody sh*t show but maybe Israel can

keep the Syria op from becoming another Yemen-style KSA clusterf*ck".

May 7

Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister 3h3 hours ago
 

This - https://twitter.com/AP/status/596325611196526592 … - was the primary catalyst behind this: https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/595687654303358977 …. Check out my latest article - "Why #Assad is Losing” - on @ForeignPolicy http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/05/why-assad-is-losing-syria-islamists-saudi/ … #Syria Significant shifts taking place re. #Syria.

Chinahand: brag on charles. Ironically I had just tweeted this: "and the dish is coming out of the kitchen. Will be interesting to see what pundits/media outlets in US endorse KSA/TK strategy"  

Nice to know Brookings Doha available when Gulf states want to outlets to spin a new initiative.

May 7, 2015

Turkey and Saudi Arabia confirm pact to aid al-Qaida in Syria http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/07/turkey-saudi-arabia-syria-rebels-pact_n_7232750.html …

Chinahand: and the dish is coming out of the kitchen. Will be interesting to see what pundits/media outlets in US endorse KSA/TK strategy

May 5

It’s High Time the U.S. Imposed a No-Fly Zone Over Northern Syria http://thebea.st/1R7TdPb via @jamiewrit

Jamie Dettmer conservative media stalwart, also broadcasts for VOA. Maybe USG ready to roll out the Syria intervention product?

Day after US whacked 50+ civilians in a bombing raid maybe not best time to roll out the humanitarian intervention PR, Jamie

May 1

Is Bashar al-Assad Finished, for Real, This Time, Again?

chinahand added,

 "Washington needs to exercise total control over who gets what from regional powers to the Syrian opposition."

 Hof sounds like "expert on wishful thinking about Syria" rather than "Syria expert". Note assumption that Iran will write off eastern Syria I take this as "I'm sure Iran will ditch Assad in return for nuke deal" Lite

interesting. According to Reuters, Syrian weakening because instead of 250k SAA soldiers, now they've got 125 K SAA + 125 shabiha/Hezbollah

not saying it ain't true, but it ain't axiomatic

by the way, the KSA incursion into Yemen apparently in the sh*tter. Time to crank up the distracto machine, maybe.

April 30

Liz Sly @LizSly

Saudi, Turkey & Qatar are ramping up support for Syria rebels, leaving US policy behind. By @karendeyoung1 & me http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-allies-in-middle-east-ramping-up-support-for-rebel-forces-in-syria/2015/04/29/07b1d82c-edc8-11e4-8666-a1d756d0218e_story.html?tid=hpModule_04941f10-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1e&hpid=z11 …

chinahand added,

"Some find it hard to believe the United States is not involved in the new push." https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/593572920863129600 …

"I'm confused. Are we doing this stenography for USG, or for KSA/Qatar? Who'm I talkin' to here?"

April 30

Aron Lund @aron_ld 

#Syria's Political & Armed Opposition Agree on Five Points http://syrianobserver.com/EN/News/29099/Syria_Political_Armed_Opposition_Agree_Five_Points … on Khoja's meeting with Islamists & FSA, via @observesyria

chinahand added,

"This time it will REALLY work". Dinner about to come out of the kitchen.

April 29

Salman Shaikh @Salman_Shaikh1 

In 3months, King Salman is proving to be most consequential Saudi leader since Founder.He's setting course for #KSA & region for yrs to come

chinahand added,

Whole Lotta Strokin' Going Ooooooooooooooon

chinahand retweeted 

Saudi's Prince Turki: Obama’s pivot towards Iran "contributed to the collapse of the regional system of the MidEast" http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/saudi-arabia/prince-turki-calls-on-us-to-rethink-middle-east-policies-1.1501337 …

April 29

always had a suspicion Obama didn't want to leave office w/ Assad still in power.

Maybe now he's in his "I dont have to GAF about the consequences, let's crater Syria, Hilary can handle it" Legacybuilder mood.

Unmistakable US message via punditstan & journoland that Assad's supposed to go down.  IMO this is the dealio: we got our Iran deal, so KSA

gets Assad's head on a dish.  Works the other way, too: KSA fusses on Iran too hard, US gets less active in the anti-Assad effort.

Paris was worth a mass to Henry IV.  Guess Iran rapprochement is worth a GCC clusterf*ck in Syria. Country's already in ruins after all.

And, if Iran fusses overmuch about Assad's fate, then maybe the wheels come off the precious deal.  All stitches together nicely

April 29

"An Eroding Syrian Army Points to Strain." by @ABarnardNYT et al  http://nyti.ms/1P4qE1s  

April 29 

Wonder if Obama sold Iran nuke deal to ME crowd w/ promise "If you let us make deal, Iran's gonna throw Assad under bus." Getting that vibe

April 29

Huge if true. South Syria rebels reportedly promised Arab air cover. https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/565200-south-syria-rebels-reportedly-promised-air-cover ….

April 28

Mahir Zeynalov @MahirZeynalov  ·  Apr 28 

Syrian FM: Attacks on Idlib city and Jisr al-Shughour were carried out by logistical and fire support from the Turkish army.

April 28

chinahand @chinahand  ·  

Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms  ·  

We're about to see how invested Iran & Russia are in propping up the Assad regime.

@johnnallan hmmm. What's cookin' in the kitchen, Max? & who invited you in for a taste?

April 26

Borzou Daragahi @borzou  ·  

'Tolerated' #Syria opposition figure @HusseinLouay goes into exile, declares Bashar hopeless http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-Ea

April 26

chinahand @chinahand  · 

seeing lot of "assad on the ropes". Wonder how much is real, how much channeling pre-emptive crowing of TK/KSA/Qatar.

April 23

Airstrikes in Yemen show Saudi Arabia can lead a complicated military campaign http://on.wsj.com/1PnEmyt  by @yarotrof 

 Chinahand added

WSJ wins an Attaboy! biscuit for this one. USG backgrounding Yemen op fiasco but

KSA trying to sell idea it's ready for prime time as enforcer of ME security agenda. WSJ doing best but Saud better fund another think tank

more interesting & dark times ahead for ME as US steps back & KSA claims role of local bossman. Seems US going along w KSA stomp thru

Yemen & upcoming Syria campaign as consolation prize for US-Iran rapprochement. Do I think an insecure incompetent theocracy

w/ more money than sense will succeed.  Uh...& I wudn't be surprised if KSA faces a lot more blowback now that it's trying to drive the regional agenda instead of identifying itself as US ally

@chinahand Do you think Assad will survive?

not if ksa & tk can help it. & judging by Landis, they'll ignore US qualms & go full spectrum. If KSA starts bombing

Damascus like it's bombing Sanaa & TK does something on the ground, Assad might finally be ready for his Moscow apartment.

April 20

Assad’s Western Media Campaign Reveals His Weakness, Not Strength: by @freddydeknatel http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/15574/assad-s-western-media-campaign-reveals-his-weakness-not-strength#.VTW4Pg62gFB.twitter …

chinahand added,

We're Saudi Arabia and we're here to fix this!"

quotes Landis extensively. Apparently he's deeply bearish on Assad now

Will PRC Respond to Joint US-Japanese Patrols in the South China Sea With an ADIZ?

I have a short piece on the prospects for joint US-Japanese air patrols in the South China Sea in the context of the new US-Japan defense guidelines at the new AT.  Go!  Read it! Thank you.

I draw the conclusion that the main practical application of joint patrols is to provide backup to the Philippines if/when they try to assert their EEZ rights, perhaps at the Reed Bank, site of a much-yearned-for undersea energy bonanza, after the UNCLOS ruling on the Nine-Dash-Line comes down.

One issue I’ll explore here is the possibility that the PRC will declare an ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) in the South China Sea.

I guess it needs pointing out that the ADIZ is not an exclusion zone.  There is zero tolerance by any nation for uncontrolled overflights of sovereign airspace (which covers territorial waters up to the 12-mile limit; in contrast to aircraft, foreign naval vessels can transit through territorial waters).

The ADIZ, on the other hand, as the name indicates, is a more extensive zone beyond sovereign airspace in which planes are expected to identify themselves and state their business.  It covers nearby international airspace by design and its extent is pretty much a function of the speed of hostile aircraft and the reaction time of air defenses.  An ADIZ is meant to establish a zone in which aircraft that don’t identify themselves and announce their intentions can be intercepted before they can penetrate sovereign airspace and maybe drop a bomb on somebody.  It’s actually a good arrangement for delineating zones of anxiety and, in theory, makes the world a safer and more orderly place.  National ADIZs can even overlap, as the Taiwan experience demonstrates.

Frequency of actual intercepts within the ADIZ apparently correlate with paranoia and hostility at any given time.

According to this informative piece in The Aviationist, in Europe NATO jets scramble to intercept any Russian military aircraft in the ADIZ.  Apparently over Alaska things are more casual, and in 4 out of 10 cases of lumbering Russian Tupelov bombers trolling the Alaska ADIZ in the last year, the US chose not to scramble interceptors:

The ADIZ is an airspace surrounding a nation or part of it where identification, location, and control of aircraft over land or water is required in the interest of national security. This means that any aircraft flying in these air spaces without authorization may require identification through interception by fighter aircraft in QRA (Quick Reaction Alert).

…

Military aircraft that do not intend to enter the national airspace are not required to identify themselves or otherwise comply with ADIZ procedures but it is a common practice that any foreign (namely Russian) military aircraft flying close to the U.S. or Canada airspace, within the ADIZ, is intercepted, identified and escorted.

  

In 2013, the PRC set up an ADIZ over the East China Sea to much moaning and gnashing of teeth and, I might add, a lot of crappy reporting on how unreasonable it was. In what should have been a blockbuster report but somehow, you know, vanished without a trace, the Daily Mainichi reported that, far from being blindsided by PRC ADIZ perfidy, the Japanese government had been extensively briefed by the PRC prior to declaration of the zone.  At the time I participated in the rather lonely and tedious task of debunking the ADIZ-threat canard and you can read one of my pieces below.

The US military has a consistent policy of not respecting anybody’s ADIZ notification practices and immediately dispatched two bombers from Guam to penetrate the newly-announced ECS ADIZ without prior notification.  US civilian air carriers, rather intelligently, respect the PRC ADIZ guidelines; Japanese civilian air carriers, rather less intelligently, do not.

The PRC has been politely deferential to the US on the matter of military flights inside its East China Sea ADIZ and would presumably grit its teeth and accept continuation of incessant US military flights over the South China Sea even if the PRC announced an SCS ADIZ (the PRC seems to have discarded its aggressive posture toward US surveillance aircraft over the SCS and near PRC naval facilities on Hainan Island after the P-3 incident of 2001, in which a Chinese fighter pilot died after a mid-air collision and the P-3 Orion, a turboprop, was forced to make an emergency landing on Hainan Island).  

Japanese aircraft in the SCS would presumably be another matter.  Japanese military aircraft are frequently intercepted and dicked with in the ECS ADIZ and if Japan Air Self Defense Force (hereinafter the “Japan Air ‘Self Defense’ (heh heh) Force” start flying around the SCS two thousand miles from home and in China’s backyard they aren’t going to be welcomed by the PRC.

Which, I suppose, is the whole point of “joint patrols”.  It’s not that the US doesn’t have enough airplanes to fly around the SCS by itself or Japan likes to waste fuel & irritate the PRC by performing surveillance the US previously handled itself; it’s about bringing in Japan under the American aegis to demonstrate that the US is the indispensable big brother that makes it possible for Japan to pursue its regional ambitions under its freshly reinterpreted, somewhat bent, and no longer 100% pacifist constitution.

I suppose a subtext of the new US-Japan defense guidelines the PRC is supposed to be grateful that the United States, by codifying the involvement of Japanese forces in US-directed operations, is restraining unilateral Japanese adventurism in East Asia, but I tend to doubt the PRC sees it that way.

In any case, it would seem plausible that the PRC might push back against the appearance of Japanese aircraft in the SCS by announcing an ADIZ in the South China Sea and either routinely or selectively harassing Japanese aircraft (and their US companions) with intercepts.   

(Possibly ADIZ enforcement could be supported from airstrips popping up in the SCS as part of the PRC crash island building program though, as this good overview from Reuters points out, this gambit more likely relates to other salami slicing missions along the fisheries & maritime enforcement line.)

(Also parenthetically, Taiwan’s military has advised the legislature it plans to patrol the South China Sea outside of Taiwan’s own ADIZ to support its own South China Sea island claims.  Will be interesting to see how PRC handles that.)

I suspect the US realizes that if Japanese military aircraft appear in the SCS, there is a high degree of likelihood that the PRC will declare an ADIZ and start intercepting those planes, with a concurrent rise in tensions and the possibility of fatal incidents; only question is Is This a Good Thing?

After the break, my 2013 article on the ECS ADIZ.